Big wave surfing involves all the right elements coming together. It’s a magically exact combination of weather, sea and surfer that actually doesn’t happen that often. That’s why a looming El Nino has the faces of big wave riders all over the world lit up like kids on Christmas morning. 

The single most important element to this winter’s big wave surfing season is the El Nino. And if you don’t know what that is, it’s a weather pattern that forms every three to six years as equatorial trade winds slack off in the Pacific and create a kind of weather imbalance that leads to drought and fire in Australia and Brazil, but whopper storms and flooding along the U.S. west coast, Central America and the northern tip of South America. There is typically less hurricane activity in the Atlantic as well. 

The announcement of a developing El Nino pattern over the summer set the pulses of many in the big wave world racing in anticipation of once-in-a-lifetime waves at spots like Maverick’s and Cortes Bank, off the California coast.

“All indications are in place for an epic winter. Based on how good it’s been already, it’s not just on paper, but in the ocean,” says Bill Sharp, founder and keeper of the Billabong XXL Global Big Wave Awards, now in its tenth year.

And by the time the awards are handed out in March, there could be a handful of record-breaking rides to choose from.

“I’m pretty certain that we’re going to be breaking new ground with the waves we ride this winter,” says Greg Long (pictured), probably the best young big wave surfer in the world.  “Last El Nino, tow-surfing was in its infant stages and we weren’t really prepared to ride the biggest swells.”  

But the presence of an El Nino is not a guarantee of big perfect swell. Sharp and Long, as well as Mavericks regular Peter Mel have all chosen to set their perspective at cautious optimism.

“I heard all the hype, and I’d be the first one to be a little pessimistic,” Mel says. “But I’ve started to see the first couple of storms and now I’m getting sucked into the hype too.”

Sharp says it is always a roll of the dice, El Nino or no El Nino.  “You’re talking about six to ten days over the winter where everything comes together.” 

Meanwhile, the world’s two most prestigious big wave contests have their own drama to contend with.

The Maverick’s Surf Contest has been run by committee since the resignation of contest founder and Mavs discoverer, Jeff Clark. The Quiksilver In Memory of Eddie Aikau Big Wave Invitational took the controversial and risky move of opening up the invitation process to public voting.

Clark’s resignation after squabbles with business partners became too much, Mel says forced the Mavs crew of respected surfers into a tough situation. “Do we want the competition? Yes. Do we want it without Jeff? Not really.” But collectively, the group decided to carry on.  Clark played the good soldier at last week’s opening ceremony where he was an honorary invitee. He chose to smile and basically keep mum for reasons that all the guys understood.  “That’s what was so great about him being there. He knows this is about the wave. We’re all there because we love it.”

Sharp says Clark is critical to the spirit of the event. “The mechanics of running a contest are pretty simple, but it’s valuable to have somebody who’s the face of an event. In the same way, George Downing has been that for the Eddie.” 

And while it gets a boost from the possibilities an El Nino raises, the Mavs contest faced other hurdles along the way this year. New restrictions placed on the use of personal watercraft - or jetskis - in the environmentally sensitive Mavericks surf zone presented a major threat to how the contest could be run. Though it’s a paddle-in contest, jetskis are used to ferry surfers out to the break and also to fish them out after a wipeout.

PWCs could be used during the previous contest window of December through February, but organizers realized the waiting period was routinely missing key swell activity in November and moved the window forward a month. That meant organizers then had to get an exemption permit from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the government agency that guides and protects the use of coastal resources. 

Even before that, community opposition to the contest had grown the last few years as the event attracted more people to the small town of Half Moon Bay. In fact, it had become the key element in how or even if the contest would be run again. During the spring and summer, the town weighed environmental, traffic and safety issues as well as taxpayer cost. But as the recession wore on, the town concluded the Mavericks Surf Contest did far more good. Mel was relieved. 

“All of a sudden the community was on board and that was a big part of it,” Mel says.  “They agreed, ‘Yeah, we need this.’ “

But management by committee and the struggle to reach consensus on issues like what day to actually run the event continue to be a new adventure for all involved, only raising respect for what Clark did for years.

“We’re still wondering if it’s going off,” Mel says wryly. “We got off to a good start with the opening ceremony.  Now we’ll have everyone chime in and vote the day.”

As surfers and event organizers wait to find out what this El Nino holds, speculation over whether this will be the biggest system since the modern era of big wave surfing began is stirring.

As Long said, big wave surfing, especially tow-in surfing was just beginning in the El Nino winter of 1997-1998. It was then on January 28, 1998, also known as Biggest Wednesday, that a Condition Black was declared on the North Shore of Oahu. Beach homes were evacuated and the Eddie was called off when waves actually got too big and were smashing through Waimea Bay.

Defying the ocean closure, Dan Moore towed Ken Bradshaw into a near 70-foot high wave - a record breaker at the time - at Outside Log Cabins just east of Waimea and about two miles off the coast. A day later, Mavericks was spectacular but Darryl “Flea” Virostko nearly drowned when he was slammed into the rocks. The Jaws crew, led by Laird Hamilton and Dave Kalama also got their fill of historic rides.

To predict where primo swell is going to hit this winter is impossible, but the key places to watch should be Jaws, off the coast of Maui and Cortes Bank off the Southern California coast. Uniquely able to handle huge swell, if records are broken, it will likely be those spots. Jaws activity has dropped significantly in recent years and it’s overdue for an epic winter. But Sharp says “Cortes Bank is the Holy Grail.”

Mavericks could have their biggest swell yet for a contest, but Waimea requires a precise swell angle that might never roll through, so it’s only reasonable to presume that El Nino will bring more chances for the right swell to arrive. Baja’s Todos Santos should get plenty of good swell, simply because it always does. And to scramble things completely, El Ninos can occasionally bring gigantic swell to Northern Europe. Irish and Scottish surfers take note, this could be your year.

Advice here is to manage your expectations carefully. There are so many variables; a logical mind simply has to factor those in as much this winter as every other. If cautious optimism works for the insiders, it should be good enough for everyone else. But we can dream, can’t we?

 Photo Edwin Morales/BillabongXXL.com

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