When the voters of New York’s 23rd Congressional district go to the polls tomorrow, look for both the party’s moderate wing and conservative base to spin the result as proof that party leaders should have heeded their concerns all along.

NY-23 — a sprawling rural district that borders Lake Champlain, Lake Ontario, and spans much of the Adirondacks — has a historic Republican lean but nonetheless gave Barack Obama a 52% to 47% victory in 2008.

The House seat became vacant when Obama nominated then-Rep. John McHugh, the district’s long-serving, popular Republican, to be Secretary of the Army. McHugh, a wonky, low-key moderate, had dominated his elections since first winning the seat in 1992. In 2008, he was reelected with 65% of the vote even as Obama carried the district.

But local GOP officials chose Dede Scozzafava — a moderate former state assemblywoman who supports abortion rights and gay rights — to replace McHugh, sparking a full-scale insurrection by conservative activists both in the district and around the country.

Key GOP figures such as former Alaska Governor and vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin, and Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, chose to back Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman. In the last month of the campaign, Hoffman began to surge as Scozzafava fell to a distant third place in most polls.

Over the weekend, Scozzafava suspended her campaign (effectively ending it), and the GOP establishment rallied around Hoffman. Scozzafava, however, did not. In fact, she endorsed Owens, her former Democratic opponent, and has recorded robocalls on his behalf.

While some polls have shown Hoffman surging into what would be an insurmountable lead, others continue to show a tight race.

If Hoffman wins, look for conservatives to point to this race as proof that the party does not need to nominate moderates to win in competitive districts. If he loses, look for them to blame local party officials (who chose Scozzafava) for being out of touch and causing the ideological feud to erupt in the first place.

Conversely, expect moderate GOPers to paint a Hoffman victory as proof that they are no longer welcome in today’s Republican tent. If he loses, they will say that an ideological litmus test is political suicide outside of the GOP’s southern and western base.

Both camps will spin, and spin hard, because this House race is very much a proxy battle for the larger war to define the party nationally.

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