One: Peyton Manning will win at least one more Super Bowl. Manning turns 34 next month, which seems a little scary-like 24 oz Miller High Lifes, Manning’s been in my life forever. Is it possible that one day in the next few years, he’ll no longer quarterback the Indianapolis Colts? Not likely-I think Peyton is more likely to play until age 40 than not. He’s peaking at 34-he’ll have the Wayne-Clark-Garcon-Collie foursome with him for the next five years. Yes, he’s only managed one ring in twelve years so, but I think he’ll get another. Two more, Elway-style, wouldn’t surprise me.

Two: Brees will win another, too. Without a doubt, the Saints and Colts are the favorites to return to the big dance. Brees has at least five more prime years in him. He has a plethora of young, dangerous weapons, and a defense that’ll only keep getting better as Greg Williams imports players. What NFC team rivals the Saints in potential right now? None. These guys are built to last. They’ll be back.

Three: The Eagles will trade Vick to the Rams for a mid-round draft pick. Steve Spagnolo sounded in love with Vick when he spoke about the embattled QB during Super Bowl week. This trade makes too much sense for both teams. The Eagles want to unload Vick before his 1.5 million dollar March bonus. The Rams need a playmaker to put fans in the seats. Expect to see Vick star alongside Steven Jackson in the NFL’s most run-heavy offense next year. It’ll be a dream come true for a defensive coach like Spags.

Four: Reggie Bush will stay in New Orleans. Bush’s inflated salary will be tough for the Saints to swallow, but without a cap, they can’t justify jettisoning a special playmaker like Bush. Winning the championship will provide Tom Benson with enough cash flow to keep him.

Five: T.O. will sign with the Bengals. At Ocho Cinco’s mansion bash this week, T.O announced via loudspeaker that if he signs with Cincy, he’ll change his name to Ocho Uno. He won’t command much on the open market, and the Bengals could actually use him. They need a solid possession receiver opposite Ocho Cinco. Andre Caldwell and Laverneus Coles run like the field is lined with molasses and all the defenders have coodies.

Six: The 2014 Super Bowl will be played in the frigid swamps of Jersey. Commish Goodell really likes the idea of playing a cold-weather game in one of the world’s largest markets. And if you think that stationing the Super Bowl in New York City market doesn’t have anything to do with the league’s slow rebranding as an international game, you’re crazy.

Seven: The surprise onside-kick will boom in popularity. It’s a badass coaching move and works a surprisingly high percentage of the time. After the Packers and Saints both used it to propel comebacks this playoff season, it’ll become hip. Just watch.

Eight: Gut Reaction-the 2010 NFC playoff teams: 1. Saints 2. Packers 3. Cowboys 4. 49ers 5. Vikings 6. Giants

Nine: the 2010 AFC playoff teams: 1. Colts 2. Jets 3. Ravens 4. Chargers 5. Titans 6. Steelers

Ten: The first game of the 2010 season will be Steelers at Saints. And it’ll be a great one. So do whatever you need to do to get by until then-drink heavily, learn to play a musical instrument, develop some weird sexual fetishes. Sean Payton slept with the Lombardi Trophy last night. Maybe you can find a replica.

So f*ck it. You know the case for the Colts. I’m sure Ron Jaworski’s done everything but draw a diagram of the seminal vesicles that give Peyton Manning’s balls all their magic. Here’s the case for the Saints.

(As always, my fabulous girlfriend Hadley’s pick appears below mine)

One: The Peyton Manning Effect

You know the gimmick. Who would you rather have:

Quarterback A: 393-571 for 4,500 yards, 33 TD and 16 INT

Quarterback B (in 15 games): 363-514 for 4,388 yards, 34 TD and 11 INT

Hard choice, right? You’d probably lean towards Quarterback B, ever so slightly. And you probably hate me a little for doing the “Quarterback A/Quarterback B” thing because you realize by now that Quarterback B is Drew Brees, while Quarterback A is Peyton Manning.

When I say “The Peyton Manning Effect” I don’t mean his ability to make me want to buy a Kindle, nor do I mean his supernatural abilities as the greatest quarterback of his time. I’m talking about his ability to completely blind betters on this Super Bowl to anything else that’s happening in this game. Like for example:

Two: Drew Brees is Great

It seriously seems like Peyton Manning facing off against a mildly attractive mannequin, not Drew Brees, the second best quarterback in the league. And yeah, he is the second best quarterback right now-have you seen post-op Tom Brady play? He perpetually has that queasy, “fuck, another one’s pregnant” look on his face after every bad second quarter.

People seem to forget how great Brees was this year. He had more yards per attempt than Manning. He executed badass comebacks. His pre-game rally cries make me want to run outside, wild and naked, and destroy everything in my path. He’s been in the same offense for three years, and he has an arsenal of speedy targets. The Colts haven’t seen anyone like that. In fact:

Three: The Colts have Struggled Against the Few Good Quarterbacks They’ve Faced the Last Few Months

Tom Brady: 29-42-375-3 TD 1 INT

Matt Schaub (2 games): 63-85 (74%!)-595-3 TD-4 INT

Pass defense has been tough for the Colts the past few months. They’ve been seriously banged up in the secondary, and even Mark Sanchez had early success against them. I’ve heard everyone make the case to me as to why the Saints can’t stop the Colts. Fine. But no one’s made the case to me as to how the Colts will stop the Saints. It’s been conveniently forgotten. Normally, you’d point to their pass rush. But then:

Four: The Dwight Freeney Torn-Up Ankle is Huge

Literally. It’s f*cking swollen as hell, and that matters a ton. Against healthy-Freeney, the Saints would be more eager to protect LT Jared Bushrod than an over-zealous mom who wraps her son’s torso in cellophane before prom. Against Dwight Freeney on one leg, the Saints can afford to send our 4-5 guys on a route, instead of just 3-4.

That makes a huge difference. The Saints get more yards than anyone on dump offs to tight ends and running backs because their speed on the outside clears so many lanes. Expect a big receiving game from Reggie Bush. The Saints will definitely discover a way to attack this defense because:

Five: Yeah, Peyton Manning is Brilliant, But the Saints Have Two Brilliant Coaches.

With two weeks of preparation, Sean Payton will find a way to attack this Colts defense. He’s the most innovative and effective play-caller in the league, and he attacks defenses weak spots. The Saints are fantastic at hitting the short corner routes in between the corner and safety against the Cover 2. The Colts will probably anticipate this and respond by playing more man early (which they do this year), but I’d wager that Sean Payton has a plan to attack them horizontally and rack up huge yards after the catch.

So the pick against the spread in a game pitting two really even teams on a neutral field? It’s easy.

Saints (+5) over Colts

Listen, there’s reason to be happy here. Your Super Bowl party won’t be dominated by people jabbering about Lost during the third quarter of a blowout. Even if either team falls behind by two scores, they’ll be a huge comeback threat. It will be a good game.

I actually think the Saints will control the game in the second half with a heavy dose of Pierre Thomas. And then we’ll get what we all want: Peyton Manning, with two minutes left, down by six and with his chance to put his “Peyton was here, bitches” stamp on Super Bowl 44. And he will. Manning to Pierre Garcon on a 15 yard post pattern for the win. Write it down.

Colts 35-Saints 34

Hadley’s Pick

I’m truly excited for the Super Bowl. Yes, I’ll be swimming in beer bottles and barbeque sauce by the end of the night, but this is the first year I’ll feel like I actually kind of know what led up this great big climax of a game. So without further ado, I’ve compiled a list of pros and cons for each team with my final pick at the end.

Saints

Pros:

-       New Orleans fan base. Did you see those fans ready to smash through Sean Payton’s car windows in order to envelope him in an orgy of Saints pride? Those players have a lot of love behind them.

-       Quarterback Drew Brees. He’s kind of cute. He works for worthy charities. His name lends itself to some mouth-watering puns.

-       Linebacker Scott Fujita. He openly advocates abortion rights and gay rights. He comes across as grounded, honest, and respectful of others’ opinions. I can’t help but root for him.

Cons:

-       Sir Saint. This mascot, with its massive chin and imposing facial hair is so, so scary.

Colts

Pros:

-       Quarterback Peyton Manning. The man is impossible not to like. Sure, we don’t agree politically, but as I’ve said before, he’s irresistibly charming in commercials. He makes me like commercials. That’s impressive.

-       Head coach Jim Caldwell. If looks could kill, Jim Caldwell would leave a trail of corpses in his wake.

-       The team name. Colts are young, strong, and independent. Plus since horses are so often considered a “girl thing,” it’s nice to see a bunch of men embrace them. That didn’t sound right.

Cons:

-       Blue. Somehow the Colts mascot manages to be even more frightening than Sir Saint.

The verdict? Saints 34-Colts 28 (Saints +5). In all honesty, I think the Colts will win, but I’d rather root for the underdog. New Orleans is still in recovery from Katrina, they have a ferocious set of fans, and a linebacker who is willing to discuss controversial topics in a respectful and rational way. Go team! And go me for following football for an entire season, beating Joe on my picks record (though I admit, it was sheer luck… go Joe for being funny AND knowledgeable), and picking up some killer trivia. I couldn’t have done it without all you readers (whoever you may be)-go you!

Season

Joe: 128-123-3

Hadley: 129-122-3

Playoffs

Joe: 5-7

Hadley: 8-2

One: The Pro Bowl will continue to stand out like the Super Bowl’s ugly, 350-lbs, Hannah-Montana-obsessed little sister.

Two: Matt Leinert will be the latest QB to revitalize his career-relatively speaking. Are 3,300 yards and 18 touchdowns resurgence? In today’s high-flying NFL, not really, but I think Leinert will squeak the Cardinals into the playoffs atop the NFC West with a 9-7 or 10-6 record, as they become more of a running team. And that’ll be enough to earn him a generous, renegotiated contract before his bonuses hit in 2011.

Three: Injuries CB Jerraud Powers and DE Dwight Freeney will hurt the Colts. Against the Saints, your third CB (Powers) counts as a starter; your best pass-rusher (Freeney) counts as four starters. Neither will be anywhere close to full strength, which, when it comes to lowering stress levels, counts as four blow jobs and a Xanax for the Saints QB (Drew Brees).

Four: Pete Carroll will leave Seattle in three years with a 24-24 record. It’s excruciatingly predictable-kind of like how, inevitably, there’ll be two or three fat coaches that have heart attacks in 2011 or 2012, and then the health epidemic of coaches will become a big storyline, and we’ll see way too much old footage of Herm Edwards working out, and then, suddenly, Marvin Harrison will shoot someone again and no one will care.

Five: Jeremy Shockey’s health will play a huge role in Sunday’s game. Shockey played on one leg against the Cards and Vikes-his guts were impressive, but after two weeks off, can he make an actual difference on the field? The Saints offense has an extra dimension or three when Shockey’s attacking the seams. This is a huge factor.

Six: The badass Reggie Bush will show up. He’s been running the ball with actual power to go along with his blazing speed and scandalishious moves, and I think he makes his case to stay in New Orleans on Sunday.

Seven: If the Saints win, their fans deserve the credit. I love watching the Saints play at home-no fan base forces doses of high-strung energy down their team’s throat the way they do. That crowd seemed to will them to victory against the Vikings, even though they were outplayed terribly. So though Payton and Breesus will become Gods with a victory, I’ll give credit to Who Dat Nation, which outnumbers Colts fans 4:1 right now in Miami.

Eight: if the Colts win, Peyton Manning deserves the credit. If he racks up another comeback win, Goodell better get a bronze replica of his balls up in Canton ASAP.

Nine: This game will turn on the leg of Matt Stover. He’ll have a chance to win this game at some point-either to put the Colts up by ten early in the 4^th quarter or up by 3 late. Maybe both. Chances are he makes it, but who knows?

Ten: Soak up every moment of the Super Bowl like it’s a psychedelic Jacuzzi of LSD, Vodka and orange juice. I know I will, because I’ll need to get incredibly f*cked up to get over the end of football season.

I mean, f*ck, who the hell wants to watch a game that bans blitzing and features David Garrard for most of the second half? If I wanted to witness that immense level of  pussitude, I’d to a Pro Bowl concert.  The league tried to ratchet up interest by moving the game from the week after the Super Bowl to the week before it, and that was a slight improvement. Usually, the Pro Bowl is a depressing post-Super Bowl reminder of everything I’ve lost. Now, I’m merely disinterested.

There are so many easy ways the NFL could improve this game. The easiest would be to allow blitzing and triple the game checks for the winning players. The more creative solution would be to transform Pro Bowl week into one big dick measuring competition (not literally, though Greg Oden might have to make an appearance.)

Do you remember the Quarterback Challenges in the late 90’s? Those were fucking awesome. I loved watching Peyton Manning awkwardly shuffle through an obstacle course, jumping over something that resembled a mutilated pony before throwing on target. Those dudes got so into it; I distinctly remember Cade McCown dropping four F-bombs after his rookie year after he only hit the 2^nd smallest ring on the target.

Wouldn’t bringing back these competitions for every position be immensely more entertaining? Wouldn’t you love to see Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson compete in an elaborate contest of strength and skill? Wouldn’t you love to see Chad Ochocinco and Tony Romo compete to see who could get the most blowjobs in six hours on South Beach? Of course you would.

But it’s not gonna happen. So we’re stuck with the current format, and I’m going to pick this f*cker anyway, since I hope that at least a couple of my readers have worse gambling problems than me.

AFC (+2) over NFC

This game is always literally a coin flip, so why not take the points? Plus, the AFC has the only guys who will be interested: Chris Johnson (because he wants to prove he’s the best back alive), Chad Ochocinco (because he probably shouldn’t be in the Pro Bowl, but relishes the chance to show off), and David Garrard (because his presence is such a joke that he’ll want to prove people wrong.)

Plus, the AFC has the better offensive and defensive lines. And Matt Schaub succeeds wildly when there’s absolutely nothing at stake. And it’s only fitting that I’d pick this game right since I wouldn’t even bet on it after fifteen shots of jager. So there.

One: More likely than not, Peyton Manning will follow up his 4th league MVP with a Super Bowl MVP.

Two: And he’ll get two more MVPs before it’s all said and done. Yeah, Manning’s 33 years old, but he’s taken less total hits than short-term starters like David Carr. He’s only had one major injury (the infected knee that hobbled him during the first half of ‘08). There’s no reason Peyton can’t play until he’s forty, and until he retires, I’d take him over any other QB in the league.

Three: Braylon Edwards will be on the Jets next season. Sure, there are more dropped balls around Braylon Edwards than during a middle school slow dance, but he’s earned a first-round restricted free agency tender with his play this season. And since no one in their right minds would give up a first-round pick for Braylon Edwards, he’s staying in the Big Apple. And you know what? I expect a 1,000-yard season from him next year (even if he does drop 20 balls).

Four: Favre may retire for a little while, but he’ll be back next year. I just can’t trust any reports that Favre is going to retire. I can’t see that son of a bitch retiring on a Super Bowl-birth killing interception.  He couldn’t accept it after the 2008 NFC Championship Game, he won’t be able to accept it now.

New drinking game for the off-season: take a shot every time you see a Brett Favre retirement headline. If you don’t get alcohol poisoning by spring, I’ll be shocked.

Five: This is going to be the dullest free agency period ever. No players with less than six years of NFL experience are allowed on the open market. One-fourth of the league (the final eight teams that made it to the divisional round) pretty much can’t sign free agents this off-season. They can only sign a high-salary player if they lose one themselves, and no teams are letting any of their quality, high-salary guys walk.

Six: So, there’s a good chance the good teams from this year will stay good, and the bad teams will stay bad. Will there be significant fluctuation in the haves and have nots next year? Of course, the draft and player development are still the most important factors in NFL success, but free agency does matter, and so there may be not as much fluctuation as usual. Instead of six out of twelve new teams in the playoffs next year, don’t be surprised if that dwindles to three or four.

Seven: Fumbles are going to haunt Adrian Peterson’s legacy. Twenty three fumbles in three years. That’s not a concern-that’s a serious problem. Peterson will give you 300 more yards than an average back per season based on his skills, but when he’s giving away five or six more possessions per year than a normal back, it really negates his success. One thing I’ve learned in life: when someone continually makes mistakes, it’s not likely that they’re going to change. Peterson’s fumbling problem will leave him playing second-fiddle to Chris Johnson.

Eight: The Saints will be the best team that the Colts have faced all season. The Colts are still the favorite to win this Super Bowl, but the Saints will be their biggest challenge. The Colts played a pretty easy regular season: the Pats and Texans were their only serious challenges. The Jets and Ravens both don’t stack up to the Saints. The Saints-Colts line is at 6 right now. If that line continues to climb, seriously rethink just automatically betting on Peyton in your office pool.

Nine: Pepper Johnson will be the next defensive coordinator in New England. Chances are, Belichick hires the loyal guy whom he can control.

Ten: Nothing except a Peyton injury will stop the Colts from being the Super Bowl Favorite for the 2010-2011 season. Their odds are 6-1 already, and will only get shorter. Bets I do like for next year’s winner? Panthers 40-1. Dolphins 40-1. Giants 30-1. Falcons/Cardinals 30-1. If you want to bet it, bet it now. They’ll all shrink after the Super Bowl.

I still find football amazing. Every Sunday, I get to drink, gamble, order takeout and watch football with my girlfriend and buddies, and I get to call it “work” (even if I’m not really being paid…semantics). I imagine it’s what heaven’s like, except in heaven, Wade Phillips is chained up in the corner, and God forces him to do the truffle shuffle on demand. But all in all, I can’t really complain.

We’ve got three more games, so I’m breaking this down old school. Let’s do it. I’m John Clayton on crack, bitch!

(As always, my ass-kicking girlfriend Hadley’s picks appear below mine)

Jets (+9) over COLTS

This line is like me before seeing Avatar-way, way too high. The betting public is like a bunch of zombies, blindly stumbling around and chanting “Peyton…Peyton…Peyton.” Yes, Peyton could probably beat you in the last two minutes if drunk Mariah Carie was playing tight end for him. But a nine-point cover against a D that only gives up ten points a game? That’s tougher.

One: Will the Jets Pass D finally falter? Darelle Revis will shut down Reggie Wayne. I think that’s a given. If birth control was as trust-worthy as Revis, abortion wouldn’t be such a big issue in this country. The man should come out with his own brand of condoms-he never breaks his coverage.

But can the rest of the secondary handle the Collie-Clark-Garcon triumvirate? Like they did against the Gates-Floyd-Sproles trio, they’ll have the benefit of bracket coverage-even though the Jets blitz often, they rush five guys, not six, so that’ll still leave a safety over the top. But the Colts passing game is simply more efficient than San Diego’s.

Still, the Colts don’t pass deep (except to Wayne), so they’ll have to beat the Jets in small, consistent chunks. And on some drives, I think they’ll succeed. But if you face enough third downs, you’re going to punt a few times. And that’ll keep the scoring down.

Two: Will Rex outthink Manning? Peyton Manning makes all of his calls at the line based on the defensive formation. But the Jets don’t just audible before the snap-they audible after it. That’s right-the Jets have a system to change their look completely after the snap based on what the quarterback does before the snap. It’s tough to pull off, but they succeed. Bart Scott and David Harris are really bright guys leading this defense.

Manning knows this. And he’ll sure try to predict their post-snap audibles. If anyone can do it, it’s him, but don’t be surprised if it leads to a couple of uncharacteristic Colts mistakes.

Three: Can the Jets run for four yards a pop on the Colts? In a word-yes. In two words-hell yes. The Jets run the ball better than the Ravens. And they won’t give up on the run the way the Ravens did.

Four: Will Sanchez torpedo the Jets? Quite possibly. I only see the Colts covering if Sanchez throws a pick-six. The Jets have done a fabulous job of reigning in Sanchez the past month and a half, and their commitment to the run game keeps him out of trouble. So I’d put the odds of Sanchez killing a Jets cover at 3-1. I like those odds.

Five: Will Peyton Manning make me look like an idiot? Maybe, but he’s not infallible in the playoffs. Manning is only 8-8 in his playoff career, and though he might be having his best year, this isn’t the best team he’s played on. They win, but they win close. Eight of their 15 wins have come by a touchdown or less.

The Pick

Colts 20-Jets 16

Saints (-3.5) over VIKINGS

One: Is Favre drinking too many little airline bottles of whiskey? The Vikes last three road games? Embarrassed by the Cards. Embarrassed by the Panthers. Embarrassed by the Bears. They were average (4-4) on the road this year. Maybe they should travel to New Orleans by Love Boat.

Two: Can the Vikings secondary hold up? Crippled Antoine Winfield and his friends weren’t tested last week because the Vikings D-line played one of the most dominant games in recent memory. If Ray Edwards his hobbled and the Saints slow down Allen, can the Vikings contain all the Saints weapons? Probably not. They were among the league’s worst secondaries all season.

Three: Will Prince change everything? The Viking who frightens me the most with this pick? It’s not Favre. It’s not Allen. It’s not Adrian Peterson. It’s Prince. I f*cking love Prince. And Prince just came out with a Viking Fight Song. I mean, the song’s horrible, but it’s f*cking Prince. He can do anything. There better not be a god, because if there is one, he’s trying to tell me to pick the Vikings.

Four: More realistically, will Jared Allen change everything? I have a lot of faith in Sean Payton. So I hope Sean Payton watches the tape from a month ago of DeMarcus Ware abusing Jared Bushrod and conclude that he needs to double-team Jared Allen every single play. If he doesn’t, he’ll blow his best chance at a title, and Bushrod will have lower self-esteem going into 2010 than the Democratic Party. But that’s no guarantee. So yeah, Allen-the Viking who actually looks like a Viking-scares the living shit out of me.

Five: How many points does the Super Dome count for? At least a touchdown. The fact that the Vikings will have to use a silent count will really hurt them. Especially if Favre turns the ball over early.

The Pick

Saints 31-Vikings 23

Other Bets I like

Jets +290 (Can they win? F*ck yeah they can.)

Parlay Jets +9 and Under 39 (10 pays 26. If they’re going to cover, it’ll be a low-scoring game, right?)

Hadley’s Picks

My dad lives in Miami, and recently I spent a few days down there. Wandering through CVS’s Coor’s Light Super Bowl sale got me thinking about football. The Super Bowl is soon to take place in Miami’s sunny reaches, and I have to admit, I’m absurdly jealous. Think of the parties! The press! The celebs knocking a few (or a lot) back with the players! And who do you think will be throwing down harder than anyone else? The team owners, of course! They have the funds to celebrate, and celebrate they will. So this week, I’m picking the team owner with whom I’d rather hang out on Miami’s legendary South Beach.

Colts (-8). Jim Irsay owns the original scroll of On the Road, which means he knows how to party like Kerouac. So, Jim, you can meet me on the beach with a truckload of speed, two flasks of whisky, and a typewriter.

Saints (-3.5). Tom “Boogie” Benson clearly knows how to dance. Together, we could hit up the South Beach nightlife, shaking it from club to club, until eventually Benson got us kicked out for that ridiculous umbrella. Good story, right?

Season

Joe-128-123-3

Hadley-129-122-3

Playoffs

Joe-5-3

Hadley-7-1

Last Week

Joe: 2-2

Hadley: 3-1

One: There won’t be a new CBA or salary cap for 2010-that’s 100% guaranteed. I know this is obvious, but a lot of NFL analysts think the CBA is still up in the air. It’s not. There’s no way they get this fixed in time for 2010, and we’ll be damned lucky if there’s football in 2011.

Two: Come March, Cowboys fans will be hoping that they lost in the Wild Card Round. Under the CBA, since there’s no cap, the top 8 finishing teams are seriously handicapped-they can only sign an unrestricted free agent if they lose one themselves. That means that the Cowboys, always a threat to spend big, will have to let an unrestricted free agent walk before they can sign a replacement. Considering that they might need a new left tackle, that’s a big issue.

Three: And that’ll allow the Redskins to run away in the free agency race. In an uncapped year, only two teams are a threat to seriously splurge-the Cowboys and Redskins. But with the Cowboys restricted, Dan Snyder will push to spend a lot in free agency. Because players need six years to enter unrestricted free agency-not four-under the last year of the CBA, the market will be bare. But there will still be talent on the market, and Snyder will certainly try to snag a lot of it.

Four: Jerry Jones will give Bill Cowher a call. Will news of Bill Cowher’s strong interest in coaching the Giants, coupled with another Cowboys playoff collapse, inspire Jerry Jones to try to steal Cowher before the Giants can get him at the end of next season? It’s got to cross his mind. I think he’ll grope around Cowher a little bit-here’s hoping Bill sues him for sexual harassment.

Five: The Jets will hold the Colts offense in check-relatively. The Jets have a real chance at holding the Colts to 20 points or fewer. Their pass defense in week 16 was excellent, and their performance against the Chargers was one of the most impressive secondary displays of the season. They need to take a page out of the Ravens playbook-who held Manning to just 5.7 yards an attempt-but make more critical third down stops than Ray Lewis’s bunch did. Darrelle Revis’s complete and total shutdown ability allows them to be extremely creative with their coverage and blitz schemes. Peyton will always have some success, but If Sanchez doesn’t screw the Jets D with bad field position, they’ll be alright.

Six: But I’m not sure how the Jets are going to score. The Colts run defense seems to transform at home in the playoffs, flying downhill against the run with abandon. The Jets, owners of the league’s best rushing attack, eventually gashed the Chargers, but the Chargers run defense is awful. I don’t think it’ll be so easy in Indianapolis, and the idea of Sanchez needing to throw to win the game against that Cover 2 defense has to give Rex Ryan nightmares.

Seven: We’ll see a Jets Super Bowl victory within four years. If I was going to take over a team as a GM, this, based on coaching, talent and potential, would be my list:

1.     Colts

2.     Saints

3.     Jets

They’re young. Their rookie coach, quarterback and running back will only improve. Darrelle Revis is still getting better, and he gives the Jets something no one else does. They’re built to win in the playoffs. Even if they don’t do it this year, they’ll be back.

Eight: The Vikings best chance of winning will be to let Adrian Peterson carry them. The Vikings don’t want to get into a shootout in the Super Dome….Okay, maybe Brett Favre does, but the team shouldn’t. By FootballOutsider’s advanced statistics, the Saints had the 29^th ranked run D in the league; that was tainted by a rash of injuries in the middle of the season to the front seven. They’re healthy now, but still, that run D is average at best. The Vikings want to limit Brees’ possessions and bleed the clock. They’ve got to put it in AP’s hands.

Nine: The Saints biggest challenge will be blocking Ray Edwards and Jared Allen. The Vikings have little hope of covering the Saints when they go five wide. Their secondary just isn’t very talented. But it won’t matter if Allen and Edwards harass Brees the way he did Romo. Jared Bushrod was abused by DeMarcus Ware a month ago-can he step up against Allen? Will Sean Payton give him enough help this time?

Ten: This is the last full football Sunday of the year, and you will feel like a deprived junkie in four weeks, so get your last daylong binge of football. I’m getting itchy already.

But after some contemplation, I’m feeling good. I was one blown Rodgers-to-Jennings throw away from going 4-0 in the first-round, and my matchup analysis was actually correct for once. So yeah, I’m going to avoid picking based on tunnel-vision points like “Manning is unbeatable” and “Sanchez is awful” and “Brad Childress once tried to lure my niece into a van with strawberry ice cream.”

My goal is to go 9-2 ATS in the playoffs, mostly because that record is the only thing that’ll keep me sane in May, when I graduate from college, move back into my mom’s basement and suckle on Miller High Life tall boys while watching the Oakland Raiders’ off-season conditioning on the NFL Network. It’s really important. If I go less than 9-2, I probably won’t even be able to afford the beer.

So let’s do it.

(As always, my tremendous girlfriend Hadley’s picks appear below mine. She went 4-0 last week, so you better trust her, not me)

SAINTS (-7) over Cardinals

Five minutes into the third quarter of last Sunday’s game, the Cardinals were up 21 points, and we were all looking at the fourth straight blowout game of the weekend. Luckily, the Cards did us all a mitzah and allowed a local drunken softball team to play defense the rest of the way. They were saved by the Rodgers throw and an awful missed facemask call on the last play. But now, the Bad News Beers get to face Breesus and the Saints. Gulp.

Does the Saints incompetence vs. Dallas and Tampa frighten me more than spotting Wade Phillips in a Speedo on South Beach during Super Bowl week? Almost. But I can envision how a finally healthy Saints offense can stop the Cards. Their safeties are top-notch and will shut down Fitz and Doucet’s shallow posts, which the Packers seemingly decided to ignore. Their finally healthy corners won’t get bulldozed by Fitzgerald’s offensive pass interference every play (and if they are, maybe one of those penalties will be called). Their pass rush will attack the edges of the Cardinals line, not stunt to the interior like the Packers, for some unknown reason, did. Kurt Warner will feel religiously uncomfortable about beating the Saints. And that crowd will act like a 12^th, 13^th and 14^th man on defense.

However, I can’t see how the Cardinals will stop the Saints. The Saints do what the Packers do-just better. They’ll be too fast on the turf. Getting Shockey back for the first time since Week 14 will create mismatches against the Cardinals slow linebackers.

No one likes the Saints in this game, but on the first drive of the game, when the Super Dome crowd is roaring, Warner’s line can’t hear his calls, and Beanie Wells is diving the wrong way in pass protection, you’ll be happy to have taken the Saints.

Saints 37-Cardinals 24

Ravens (+6.5) over COLTS

Glad to see John Harbaugh sobered up and realized this isn’t Joe Flacco’s team. It’s Ray Rice’s team, and Ray Lewis’s team, and that vicious, mauling offensive line’s team. I’m not sure what Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis can do to hold their ground besides giving Michael Oher a purple nurple like Sandra Bullock did in the deleted scenes for The Blind Side. By almost every measure, the Colts have a bottom-third run defense.

Trust me: the Colts wanted the Jets in this one for the “we’ll prove we’d have kicked your ass” factor, the “Darelle Revis can’t cover everyone” factor, and the “Mark Sanchez throwing against a Cover 2 defense” factor. They didn’t want the Ravens, who forced Manning into his worst game of the year in week 11, and who would have beaten them easily if their red zone decision-making didn’t resemble that of a 10-year old cracked out on Ritalin and playing Madden. I think they broke a record for incomplete corner routes to Derrick Mason.

The Ravens will run the ball and drain the clock. The Ravens’ rush will force Manning to keep things short. I’ll be shocked if this doesn’t come down to one last possession, and in that situation, you always want Peyton. But I want the points.

Colts 23-Ravens 21

Cowboys (+3) over VIKINGS (Best Bet)

As a Giants fan, I’m ashamed of how much I love the Cowboys here. DeMarcus Ware vs. Bryant McKinnie, Brett Favre vs Brad Childress vs their collective monster ego. Romo and the Cowboys receivers vs. an awful Vikings secondary. I would take the Cowboys if they were favored by three.

My only hesitations: Jared Allen and the dome crowd vs. Flozell Adams, and Adrian Peterson’s potential to win this game single-handedly. But if you’re looking for a best bet, look no further.

Cowboys 24-Vikings 16

Jets (+7.5) over CHARGERS (Upset Special)

Monday morning, I was ready to ride the anti-Sanchez bandwagon. I was ready with tons of “the only way Sanchez scores is if he stops by a San Diego State sorority” jokes. But after studying this game, I love the Jets.

What the Jets do well, the Chargers do badly. According to FootballOutsider’s metrics, the Jets were the best running team in football; San Diego was 25^th against the run. The Jets are one of the league’s best blitzing teams; San Diego struggles against the blitz, and their offense sputters when Antonio Gates has to block.

Big questions: can Darelle Revis shut down Vincent Jackson? Yes. Can the Jets get away with playing nickel all game against grandpa Tomlinson? Definitely. Will Sanchez shave off the soy sauce plastered to his upper lip if they win? If he wants to start sleeping with B-list celebrities, he better. Will Rex Ryan coach the game topless and wear pasties in order to mesmerize Norv Turner with his lava lamp belly? God, I hope so. If the Jets win the Super Bowl, should Jets fans do the ultimate good deed and find Rex Ryan’s penis for him? That question’s unanswerable, but someone might have to take one for the team.

Jets 24-Chargers 23

Other Bets I Like

10-Point 3-Team Teaser: Cards-Saints Over 47; Colts-Ravens Under 55; Jets +17

Cowboys-Vikings Under 46

Ravens-Colts Under 45

Jets +260 to win

Hadley’s Picks

Sometimes football just makes me giggle. The cropped leggings, the talk about penetration, the celebratory spanking-it all draws my eyes to one spot: the players’ asses. I can’t help it! What other athletes don that much shiny nylon? What other sport would name a position, “tight end?” So to honor the NFL’s pro-tuchus attitude, I’m making my picks this week based on which tight end has the tightest end.

Saints (-7). You have to give Jeremy Shockey credit-he knows he’s got it going on. He obviously recognizes the same truth about football that I do-that everyone is secretly checking out his ass-and is just trying to give the fans what they want.

Colts (-6.5). I’m not especially attracted to men’s behinds. Yes, I notice them during football games, but I find them more mesmerizing than sexy. Still, I imagine some women would describe Dallas Clark’s butt as “cute.”

Cowboys (+3). At least Jason Witten puts it out there. Half of winning this competition (meaning the imaginary ass competition I’m making up right now) is confidence. The other half is muscle tone, which Witten seems to possess, as well.

Jets (+7.5). Is Dustin Keller clenching? Perhaps. Is that a little unfair? Maybe. Will I still count it in his favor that he’s conscious of his tush’s appearance? Absolutely. Diligence is key.

Season

Joe: 128-123-3

Hadley: 129-124-3

Playoffs

Joe: 3-1

Hadley: 4-0

Two: Pete Carroll will regret leaving USC. He will, like the rest of us (and every major college coach that’s gone to the NFL in recent memory), learn that the real world isn’t nearly as fun as college. He’s a brilliant recruiter, and he did a great job winning with superior talent. He has inferior talent in Seattle. Even with two first round picks, this team will have more holes than the plot of Vanilla Sky. The Hawks were right to ditch Mora. But Leslie Frazier paired with a real GM would’ve been a much better fit.

Three: The Chargers will force Mark Sanchez to beat them, and he won’t. The Jets don’t matchup very well against the Chargers. Revis will take away Vincent Jackson, but Gates and Sproles create matchup problems that the Jets won’t be able to shut down completely. The Chargers will put Mark Sanchez in a position where he’ll have to win the game-and he’s just not ready to do that.

Four: But the Jets will win the AFC East next year. Really good things are happening in New York. Give the Sanchize his first real off-season, and he’ll be good enough to get the Jets to eleven wins; his defense and running game will only be better. And eleven wins will be good enough to get past the Pats, who won’t have Wes Welker at full strength until November-at the earliest.

Five: DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer will give Brett Favre nightmares. The Vikings biggest issue late this year? Protecting the quarterback. Brett isn’t nearly as good when he’s pressured. The Vikings only shot in beating the Cowboys, who are more hyped up than Jerry Jones after his customary Viagra, vodka and cocaine post-game cocktail, is for Adrian Peterson to control the clock and set up play-action for Brett. Tall order. We’ll see.

Six: Kurt Warner won’t retire. Reports say he’s leaning heavily towards hanging it up. He’s younger than his age (38), because the “grocery bagger” portion of his career limited his hits to those from crazy shoppers racing for the $5.99/twelve PBR sale. Plus, he loves Jesus, and there are no alcohol/drugs/cigarettes/all-night-marathons-with-strippers nights on his odometer. But when you throw a perfect game 29-33-379-5 TDs and may be one more season from Hall-of-Fame considerations, you don’t walk away. I doubt he’s so convinced he’ll retire right now.

Seven: Aaron Rodgers will be considered a top-five QB by this time next year. If we held a magical fantasy NFL draft today and you gave me a choice of QBs to start my franchise with, my order would look like this: 1. Peyton Manning, 2. Phillip Rivers 3. Drew Brees  4. Tom Brady and 5. Aaron Rodgers And considering Brees age (going on 30) and Brady’s age (going on 33), Rodgers might jump them by October. This will go down as a playoff loss for Rodgers, but that’s not fair. This kid showed a tremendous amount of guts to go along with his great mobility and cannon arm. Brett Who?

Eight: The Super Dome crowd will turn in a legendary performance on Sunday. The Saints crowd in that noisy dome is insane. They pretty much forced the Saints impressive-yet-failed comeback versus Dallas. After three straight losses, they know their wounded team needs them. Plus, 4:30 PM EST is the perfect gametime; everyone in that crowd will have had the afternoon to down their liquid cheering enhancers, but it’s still early enough that they won’t be crashing. Saints fans are actually the more civil drinking crowds in the league, especially compared to New York or Philly; I’m not encouraging rampant pre-gaming, but this rowdy crowd will be a real factor.

Nine: Screw it, I’ll make a Brett Favre prediction since he’ll probably lose on Saturday. He flirts with retirement, implies it but never officially declares it, and then comes back if they don’t win a Super Bowl, but if he wins the Super Bowl, he’ll retire.

Ten: Packers-Cardinals will go down as one of the most entertaining games you’ve ever seen. This one will stick with you-especially after enduring three blowouts. Let that serve as your warning this weekend. Don’t miss a game. You’re looking at your last full weekend of football for 7 ½ months (!!!), so you will appreciate it with every cell in your body, or you will detest yourself in twelve weeks when you’re watching an inside look at the Jacksonville Jaguars OTA sessions on NFL Network at 3:30 in the morning.

Picking NFL playoff games is one of the hardest things I do, which doesn’t really say a lot. There’s too much hype, and too much infinite time to flip the games over in your head. I’ve been leaning towards the Jets since Sunday Night, and Mark Sanchez throwing into triple coverage has haunted my dreams. Because I’m not in this alone. The spirits of gambling gods are everywhere this time of year, and they whisper advice through the crippling wind chill: don’t trust the rookie QB, pick at least two home teams, don’t pay twelve bucks to see a Hugh Grant movie, never bet against Bill Belichick…

But here’s the thing: the playoffs don’t follow the same rules anymore. Those gods are wrong. The Giants started the meyhem when they defied reason in 2007. In 2008, the consensus two weakest teams in the NFC field (Philly and Arizona) met in the NFC Championship game, an 8-8 Chargers team upset the Colts, and the Ravens won two road playoff games with a rookie QB, and were one play away from winning a third.

Think about it. It’s continuing now. Wade Phillips just pulled of an epic December. Norv Turner is the hottest coach on earth. Men are being auctioned off like cattle on conveyor belts on television. None of the previous rules about reality exist anymore.

So what are we left with? Matchups. Pure and simple.

But before we get to it, I want to pimp a contest I’m running at TFT, where you can win both a jersey of your favorite team, and an article, written by me, on anything you want and published here. Here’s what you do:

1)   Follow The Faster Times on Twitter.

2)   Tweet at us with your predicted Super Bowl Matchup and score (ex: Colts 34-Saints 30)

3)   Watch and see if you win.

So please do. It’ll be fun. If you want, I’ll even write about anything-your hemorrhoids, your sexual obsession with Pierre Thomas…whatever you want.

Also, check back at NFL Predictions tomorrow, when all of our Faster Football playoff brackets go up.

(And as always, my witty girlfriend Hadley’s awesome picks are below mine)

Jets (+3) over BENGALS

I think all the analysts who didn’t bother to watch the Jets-Bengals game last Sunday are missing one big thing: The Bengals played their starters and tried to win the game. Seriously. They did. Yes, their game plan was as vanilla as Roger Goodell’s sex life, but they still tried to win the game in the first half and got their asses kicked. They just couldn’t move the ball against the Jets, and they couldn’t stop the Jets running game.

Listen, betting against Mark Sanchez on the road entices me more than a liter of jager and a game of Truth or Dare. But really, the Jets are designed to beat the Bengals; they’re like a weird lab experiment that grew out of Rex Ryan’s fat tissue.

You see, the Bengals can only more the ball one way. They need to a) establish the run and then b) force eight in the box and c) win a one-on-one matchup with Ochocinco, or take advantage of bracket coverage on Ochocinco to hit Andre Caldwell or Laverneus Coles on five-to-seven yard hitches. That’s it. And they can’t really score more than 14-24 points a game that way.

But the Jets completely foil that. They have a top-ten run defense and no fear of putting eight in a box. That’s because Darrelle Revis can neutralize the likes of Randy Moss and Reggie Wayne; Ochocinco’s hilarious, but he’s not an elite receiver. He has no chance against Revis, and Caldwell and Coles simply look confused whenever they face bracket coverage.

And on offense, the Jets can run the ball. And they should. Nearly every single play. Because every time Mark Sanchez drops back to pass, I’m going to be craving that jager.

Jets 17 Bengals 10

COWBOYS (-4) over Eagles

If the NFC playoffs are a brawl, the Cowboys aren’t the most skilled fight, but they’re the biggest boy in this battle. They’re just great in the trenches, and an awful matchup for Philly.

On offense, the Boys can pound the ball and control the clock against a light Eagles front seven. The Eagles will need to blitz, but they just aren’t good enough in coverage to stop hot routes to Austin and Witten. On defense, the Cowboys powerful front eliminates the Eagles rushing threat and makes Mcnabb skittish. Seriously. Even when there wasn’t any pressure, he looked like Andy in Shawshank whenever he went into the boiler room.

Can the Eagles win this? Absolutely. If they hit the big play, they’re unstoppable. I’m sure that when Adam Schefter masturbates, he uses a DeSean Jackson highlight reel. But Wade Phillips has devised a great strategy to contain the Eagles twice already. And I’ll take the Michelin Man in Round Three.

Cowboys 23 Eagles 17

Ravens (+3.5) over PATRIOTS

The white, upper-middle class male population of Mass lost 50% of their sex drive when Wes Welker’s knee buckled-he was the Tiger Woods of NFL receivers (think about it).

Does Julian Edelman look like Wes Welker? Yes. Does he play like Welker? Yes. Will he fully replace Welker? No. So much of that Pats offense is timed option routes to Welker. It works to perfection because of Brady and Welker’s telepathic connection. Edelman is bound to make the wrong read or miss a tough third down catch at least twice, and those plays will cost them 3-7 points.

This game will be insanely close. Baltimore is one of the most impressive 9-7 teams in history; they consistently lost by a hair to elite teams. Look at the tape. They were one play away from beating the Pats, Bengals (twice), Steelers, Vikings, and Colts. And that’s a great reason to pick them. The Patriots probably have a 55-60% chance of winning this game at home. But their odds of winning by more than a field goal? Those are a lot slimmer.

Patriots 24, Ravens 23

Packers (+1) over CARDINALS

The Packers are hotter than the cast of Grey’s Anatomy drunk, oiled up and playing twister. The Vikings insurmountable divisional lead overshadowed the Packers second-half surge. They’re underrated, and they’re a bargain. I haven’t seen a value this good since that $500 Wal-Mart Flat Screen TV compelled shoppers to trample a Wal-Mart Employee. Kurt Warner will feel like that WalMart Employee.

I kid. Sort of. I think Warner will have success, but the officials tend to call illegal contact and defensive holding more leniently in the post-season, which really benefits the Packers bump-and-run scheme. Ryan Grant had the quietest 12,500 yard season ever this year, but people will remember him rather soon.

Packers 37 Cardinals 27

Other Playoff Bets I Like

Packers 10-1 to win NFC, or 18-1 to win the Super Bowl, are great value bets.

Packers-Chargers at 25-1 is a bargain, too, since they’re the league’s two hottest teams.

Cowboys-Eagles Under 45 is a nice bet, especially after that total was 24 a week ago.

So is Packers-Cardinals Over 47.

Hadley’s Picks

The playoffs this year will mean three things: football will high-jack my television for the ENTIRE weekend, Joe and I will horrify the elderly ladies in our building even more with TWO football days worth of beer bottles in our recycling, and the term “sudden death mode” will once again make me imagine the NFL players acting out the movie Sparta. Since left tackles protect the quarterback, I think they’d be good candidates for hand-to-hand/sword-to-sword/sword-to-tiger combat (for the record, I do not condone fighting animals!). So this week, I’m making my picks based on which left tackle would win in a gladiator match.

Jets (+3). D’Brickashaw Ferguson, hands down. His nickname is “Brick,” he was named after a handsome priest character in a 1983 mini-series about Australian farm laborers, and he has a street named after him… how much more badass could he possibly be?

Cowboys (-4). So many great nicknames! Flozell Adams is “The Hotel” because he’s the size of a hotel. That’s got to win you some gladiator points. It would on American Gladiator.

Ravens (+3.5). After watching a hundred sneak peeks into the movie The Blindside on Sundays, I can’t NOT pick Michael Oher. He seems like such a nice guy that I worry that he may not be vicious enough for a gladiator match. But come on… aren’t you rooting for him?

Cardinals (-1.5). I don’t like to pick guys who allegedly point guns at women in strip club parking lots. But Jeremy Bridges seems ultra-pugnacious, which would, realistically, be in his favor in a gladiator match.