Eighteen teams are .500 or better. That’s a lot of fans with legitimate playoff dreams to drunkenly smack-talk about on Thanksgiving. Fifteen teams are 4-6, 5-5, or 6-4. That’s a lot of fans who feel like their world will collapse with a loss this week. Between all the holiday meats, winter drinking and football stress, it’s prime heart attack and ulcer season. Week Twelve should be sponsored by Prilosek and Pepto.

But why? Isn’t the prevalent assumption that so far that there’s such a huge divide between the dominant teams (Saints, Vikings, Colts, Patriots) and the rest of the league that only those teams have a chance to win it all? (Props to Norm and Ryan for starting this argument in the FB comments to my last column)

Other teams have a serious shot. Injuries happen. Slumps happen. The Giants and Cards get hot in the NFC playoffs the past two seasons. We’ve seen it too often. In fact, I’ll make an argument that eight other teams have a realistic shot at getting hot and making a run to the Super Bowl:

NFC (4)-Cowboys, Eagles, Giants, Cardinals.

AFC  (4)-Steelers, Ravens, Titans, Chargers.

So stock up at CVS. This week means everything.

(My girlfriend Hadley’s picks are below mine. So skip my section if you want to get immediate advice from the girl-wonder who’s 26 games above .500 this season)

Packers (-11) over LIONS

Since the Lions-Browns game was blacked out, I was excited to be one of the few DirecTV owners to see the frantic finish.  I was pumped up afterwards, totally ready to bet on the Lions on Thanksgiving…and then they announced Stafford would be out and Calvin Johnson might not play. And then I remembered that the Browns just ripped apart the Lions D. Seriously, the last time Brady Quinn scored four times, he and JaMarcus Rusell were ordering strippers at the 2006 pre-draft party.

Raiders (+13.5) over COWBOYS

I’m compelled by the concept that the Raiders receive help from a ghost. Special teams standout Marquis Cooper died in a boating accident last year. This year, during their upset victory of the Eagles, the bird flew down with the kickoff team, maintaining his lane responsibility perfectly, and the players thought it was Cooper reincarnated. Then, the Cooper Family came to a Raiders game dedicated to Marquis-and they Raiders won on a special teams miracle when Bengals KR Andre Caldwell fumbled a kickoff with thirty seconds left. In both of their big upsets, Marquis played a major role!

Now, there probably isn’t a ghost, but when players believe something like that, it has a similar effect to MJ’s Special Stuff in SpaceJam. They players believe they can win. Bruce Gradkowski has that effect too. Look at this badass dude. Even if he was a marginal player, wouldn’t you want to go play for him, especially after enduring the JaMarcus Russell era.

Giants (-6) over BRONCOS

Not so much a vote for the still-inconsistent Giants as a big vote against the Broncos. They don’t do a single thing well anymore, and you’re asking a gimpy Kyle Orton to elude Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora? That’s like asking a waitress to elude Ben Roethlisberger. Not gonna happen.

I know I just picked every road team on a short week during Thanksgiving. Everyone thinks that’s a major killer, but the data doesn’t really back that up ATS. Green Bay to Detroit is an easy trip. The Raiders are still hyped by their big upset of the Bengals, and the Cowboys really could have used a few more days to figure out why their offense no longer works. The Broncos are awful, and the Giants are desperate. Plus, home field advantage doesn’t exist in the same way anymore, and all the fans will be working through a turkey-tailgate coma.

Colts (-3) over TEXANS

Whatever “it” is that Peyton Manning has late in games, the Texans collectively don’t. It’s not just the missed field goals at the buzzer. Before it comes to that, the Texans can’t grab leads in the last seven minutes of the game. That’s what good teams do.

I believe this will be close late, but betting against Peyton Manning is my jager. Seems like a good idea; never is.

Browns (+14.5) over BENGALS

Glad to see Brady Quinn finally kicked his post-draft hangover and took a small step towards becoming the kind of accurate, low-risk QB that penetrates Ron Jaworski’s wet dreams.

Laying over two touchdowns here is a lot, especially considering that their first game went to OT. Plus, the Chiefs are 2-0 since cutting Larry Johnson; the Bengals are 0-1 since signing him. The Surgeon General should print a cancer warning on his jersey.

VIKINGS (-10) over Bears

You know who these Vikes might be? The 2000 Vikings. Led by a reborn aging quarterback (Randall Cunningham), a dominant 2^nd-year receiver (Randy Moss), and a solid defense, the Vikings absolutely demolished every bad opponent en route to a 15-1 season before losing to the Falcons in the NFC Championship game.

The difference is, the 2009 Vikes have a much better run game and pass rush, which will help in the playoffs. But like the 2000 Vikes, this team is money covering the spread against bad teams. And yeah, the Bears count as a bad team.

Redskins (+9) over EAGLES

I can’t trust these Eagles anymore; the Redskins are playing better than the Bears, and the Eagles needed a late missed goal and a late comeback to win 24-20. The Eagles have looked great in two gamea: in the Delhomme Disaster, and against the Giants in the Linc three weeks ago. That concerns me.

Sidenote: Has anyone ever wondered if Andy Reid screwed up clock management at home so badly that it was partly responsible for his sons’ fugitive status? Like he’d let them stay out partying until 3 AM the night before exams, but inexplicably made them go to bed at 6:30 PM on a Saturday night, thus fueling their rebellion? Do you think that some weeks, Donavon Mcnabb cooks dinner, gives back massages, takes the kids to an amusement park, but the next week he struts around with a bottle of Grey Goose and passes out with strippers on rafts in the backyard pool? You have to think these character traits would leak over.

Dolphins (-3) over BILLS

This line feels like a trap-am I supposed to believe a physical, power-running football team can’t win in 46 degree weather? These are professional athletes, not my grandpa’s yenta-brunch in West Palm. I’m not seriously factoring in the weather until after the weather until it drops below 35. The Bills have stopped the run only once all season-last week. I need a larger sample size than that to pick them against rejuvenated Ricky.

TITANS (-1) over Cardinals

This line is only up in a few places, mostly because, as our own Mason Lerner put it, “Kurt Warner can’t remember if he has a concussion problem.” Warner had significant problems in Arizona, and there’s no such thing as a “minor concussion.” Why would ‘Zona risk a crippling second concussion in a week? They’re pretty much locked into a first-round home playoff game. (Cards fans: I know if you win out, beat Minnesota and Minnesota wins another game, you get a first-round bye. But that isn’t likely.)

Plus, how can you bet against Chris Johnson? He’s a tough durable runner with the best burst in the league. He inspires serious man love. As my friend Michael put it, “he can pound my hole any day.” Indeed. I’m completely on this Titans bandwagon. I covered it here.

Rams (+3) over SEATTLE

I’ll take the team that’s still fighting (Rams) over a Seattle franchise that misses the walrus more than a stoned 17-year old that doesn’t have enough cash to get into the zoo for the third time this week. It’s okay. All signs point to Holmgren returning, blowing up the roster and starting a four-year rebuilding plan, hopefully around something other than the ghost of Matt Hasselback.

Also, we need an award to give Steven Jackson. The dude’s on pace for 1,600+ yards rushing plus 50 receptions on a one-win team! He’s so good and everyone else is so bad; it’s bewildering. Eerily similar to watching James Franco star on General Hospital.

Buccaneers (+12) FALCONS

The Falcons have lost four of five, they don’t have a pass rush or pass defense, and they’re facing a scrambling rookie QB who’s good at making big throws when he extends plays.

Plus, who doesn’t love betting on a Buccaneers team that just lost it’s defensive coordinators?! Between firing the 2^nd most important coach on your team and getting cursed out by CB Aqib Talib, Raheem Morris isn’t having the best of months.

He looks like me when I found out I was running my college newspaper. The man needs a drink. But I believe in him to cover this spread.

Panthers (+3) over JETS

How about we just have Jake Delhomme and Mark Sanchez stand at midfield and see which one falls over and fumbles the ball first. Sure, the game might only take seven minutes, but it’s pretty much what will determine this game.

Jaguars (+3.5) over 49ERS

I have a feeling David Garrard and Alex Smith are the black and white versions of each other. NFL films should put together a montage of their off-balance, on the run throws that sail behind receivers; it’ll be a Thanksgiving reminder of how similar we all are, regardless of race or offensive system. Garrard has a slightly better running game and defense. Try not to get too giddy about the prospect of betting against the soon-to-be 7-4 Jags in the first round of the playoffs.

Chiefs (+14) over CHARGERS

I can definitely see San Diego, fresh off recapturing of the AFC West lead, falling asleep against an excited Chiefs team that’s on a two-game win streak following their massectomy of Larry Johnson.

It’s not an upset game, but Phillip Rivers will have to pay attention in the 4^th quarter and not just angrily stalk his ex-girlfriends on Twitter.

RAVENS (Pick ‘EM) over Steelers

I covered this in the Warner section, but there’s no way Big Ben should play in this game. I don’t care how much extra head-fat-padding his daily meals at the Golden Corral gave him this off-season, you should not let your franchise quarterback play a week after suffering a concussion. If he suffers another-which he is more likely to-you put him in serious danger. I know they’re in a playoff race. But it’s not the right move. The NFL’s step to employ independent neurologists at every game next year is a great move.

At any rate, Big Ben will play. But this Steelers team just isn’t right without Polamalu and his magical hair. The team gives up 22 points a game without him, and their awful coverage units puts them in too many holes.

Patriots (+3) over SAINTS

I’m feeling intense pressure/scrutiny from my friend/reader Norm to jump fully on the Saints bandwagon. The Saints have been pitiful for so long, their fans want absolute dominance and perfection now. And he makes a damn good argument for Saints over Vikings in the NFC Championship game: Brees will play better than Favre, a healthy Saints defense will stuff Peterson, the Vikings secondary won’t be able to defend the Saints receivers.

I counter that I’m not that confident in the Saints run D; they weren’t really tested during blowouts early in the year, and they’ve been just bad of late. I only think Brees is a slight advantage over Favre, who’s playing his best football in fourteen years. True, Favre doesn’t shoulder as much of the load as Brees. But in this offense, he doesn’t have to. When teams have challenged Brett to beat them by stacking the box, he has. The Saints will have to either challenge Favre to beat them or let Peterson run wild.

And the Vikings Pass rush/secondary stood up well against the Packers and the Steelers in their two biggest tests. Yeah, Brees can score, but it’ll be tougher without a running game and with Peterson milking the clock.

Mostly, I’ve seen too little from their hobbling defense and Brees/Payton in true pressure situations to make them the clear-cut favorite for the Super Bowl. This is their first real hyped, pressure test. If they can beat Brady in a game he and Belichick are desperate to prove themselves in, the Saints can seriously consider themselves the Super Bowl favorites. If the Saints win this game, I promise a public apology, Saints fans.

Last Week: 8-7-1 Season: 86-71-2

Hadley’s Picks

Thanksgiving Day at my house is usually quite pleasant. My mom spends the entire day laboring in the kitchen, and my brother and I spend it sprawled on the couch, complaining that we’re hungry. We eat, we talk, we eat more, we watch a movie, and the night comes to a drowsy, satisfying close. This year, however, I want to liven things up. When I asked Joe which NFL players were the most ostentatious, he replied, “The wide receivers. No question.” So what better way to turn my cozy meal into a rousing feast than to invite a wide receiver? Below I pick which number one wide receiver I’d rather host at my Thanksgiving celebration.

Packers (-11). Greg Jennings was a well-rounded athlete in high school, excelling in track, football, and basketball. This would definitely come in handy during Thanksgiving. When we forget to purchase potatoes, Jennings can run to the grocery store! When the mixing bowl is on the top shelf, Jennings can reach it! When I’m stumbling from an overload of tryptophan and red wine, Jennings can catch me before I hit my head!

Raiders (+13.5). Darrius Heyward-Bey signed a deal with the Raiders last July worth $38.25 million. I know who’s buying the wine this year.

Giants (-6). Enthusiasm is key to cranking up the party at Thanksgiving. Steve Smith is an enthusiastic man.

Bengals (-14.5). There are so many reasons to host Chad Ochocinco. He legally changed his name to an incorrect Spanish translation of his jersey number. He appears on Sports Soup with a segment entitled “Child, Please.” He raced a thoroughbred for charity and won. I wasn’t actually planning to invite any of these wide receivers, but I might really invite him. I think he’s that awesome.

Vikings (-10). Sidney Rice is a firm believer in using “sir” and “ma’am” and is known for his “gentlemanly” behavior. If Rice pulls out my chair for me, I may swoon.

Eagles (-9). Santana Moss describes himself as not very outgoing and rather quiet. That’s not going to fly at this Thanksgiving table. I think DeSean Jackson can supply the liveliness I’m looking for.

Bills (+3). Terrell Owens is the king of enthusiasm. “Excessive celebration” sounds like a great Thanksgiving.

Seahawks (-3). Maxim Magazine selected Nate Burleson as their 2006 Best Dressed Player in the NFL. While I’m not sure I have the same fashion standards as Maxim, this picture convinced me that they chose rightly.

Falcons (-12). Roddy White wrestled in high school, utilizing a move called the “Shanaz.” I don’t know what “shanaz” is, but I bet White has a lot of it. And I bet it makes him a terrific dinner guest.

Panthers (+3). Steve Smith is a family man. He coaches his son’s soccer team. He has a tattoo of Papa Smurf. He’d probably help cook and clear his own dishes. He might even bring a pie!

Texans (+3). Some people bring mashed potatoes to a Thanksgiving dinner. Andre Johnson would bring class.

Jaguars (+3.5). Michael Crabtree endorses Subway. If that’s his idea of a good meal, then I’d rather have Mike Sims-Walker over. Maybe he can appreciate quality when he tastes it.

Titans (-1). Kenny Britt could entertain us by lifting the car with his frighteningly large muscles.

Chiefs (+14). Both Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson have been arrested for DUI, so I guess whomever I picked would have to sleep over after dinner. Chris Chambers is smaller, so he’d be happier on the couch.

Ravens (-2). Joe’s mad at me because my research for this pick meant scrutinizing naked pictures of Santonio Holmes. I was already wary of Holmes’ various arrests, but now I HAVE to invite Derrick Mason instead.

Saints (-3). I don’t care about Randy Moss’s marijuana use. He calls it “having fun” and I can’t say I disagree. But the domestic abuse charges are not cool. Marques Colston, you can come on in.

Last Week

Joe: 8-7-1

Hadley: 10-5-1

Season

Joe: 86-71-2

Hadley: 91-65-2

Hadley Franklin Contributed to this Article