As mentioned before in this space, conventional wisdom may hold that the biggest flashpoint in South Asia is Kashmir and the on-going tension between India and Pakistan, but an equally good candidate for “the conflict most likely to spark a war between nuclear-armed neighbors” may actually be Arunachal Pradesh and the on-going border dispute between India and China. Beijing continues to claim large parts of what is today India as its own. (This year, China has objected to an Asian Development Bank loan to India for a flood-mitigation project in Arunchal Pradesh on the grounds that the state is actually Chinese. Beijing also claims part of Ladakh and Sikkim as historically Chinese.)

The two countries are both rising economic and military powers that increasingly find themselves in competition for vital natural resources and influence in Asia and beyond.And they have fought a war before — in 1962. India lost that conflict (badly) and the memory of how ill-prepared it was exerts a strong influence on New Delhi’s strategic thinking. (Which of course sets up a classic security dilemma.) India continues to harbor thousands of Tibetan refugees, many of whom are still intent on wresting Tibet from Beijing’s iron fist. Meanwhile, China has close military ties to Pakistan, which it assists with weapons development. For its part, Beijing views New Delhi’s new closeness to Washington as part of an American effort to build an alliance system in Asia whose sole intent is containing China.

This weekend Indian National Security Adviser M. K. Narayanan and Chinese State Councilor Dai Bingguo are holding talks aimed at resolving the border dispute between the two nations. But representatives from Beijing and New Delhi have previously held 12 rounds of talks on the border and, like those prior discussions, no breakthrough was expected this time around either.

Which is just fine. As long as both sides agree to keep on disagreeing, all is well. But the potential for war — either through intentional act or miscalculation remains high. Last year, New Delhi was atwitter over reports of Chinese military incursions over the border. India responded by repositioning troops, speeding up road building projects along the border and announcing that it would reopen several previously-shuttered high-altitude air bases near the Chinese border. That’s the kind of tit-for-tat that might easily get out of hand. Meanwhile, New Delhi has previously said that if the Chinese were to dam certain Himalayan rivers that provide water to Northeast India it would constitute an act of war. (Whether the Indians actually have the means to back that threat up militarily is a bit of an open question.)