TIER 1

Tim Lincecum followed up his 2008 Cy Young season – 2.62 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 265 K in 227 IP with an even better one – 2.48 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 261 K in 225 IP. His wins dropped from 18 to 15, but that did not stop the Cy Young voters and will not stop Lincecum, still only 25, from being the first pitcher off the board.

In 287 lifetime starts, Roy Halladay has an ERA of 3.43 and a WHIP of 1.20, and that is with pitching his entire career in the AL East. Halladay, 33 in May seems to be getting better with age, with a 2.78 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 2008 followed by 2.79 and 1.13 last year. After some low-strikeout years, Halladay went over 200 Ks each of the last two seasons. Halladay also had nine complete games in both 2008 and 2009, helping him to rack up 37 wins during that time. Halladay’s move to the NL may be somewhat offset by pitching home games in Philly’s ballpark, but with all those complete games, at least Brad Lidge will have fewer chances to cost him wins.

Felix Hernandez’s ERA in his four full seasons: 4.52, 3.92, 3.45, 2.49. Hernandez’s WHIP plummeted much more rapidly – 1.34, 1.38, 1.39, 1.14. Hernandez struck out more than 200 for the first time, but his IP also rose from 200.2 in 2008 to 238.2 in 2009, landing him on the Verducci Effect list. Hernandez led the majors with 29 quality starts. With Seattle rapidly improving, he has a chance at approaching 2009’s 19 wins. Hernandez turns 24 in April, so he is just starting to reach his star potential. Seattle just signed him to a five-year, $78M contract.

After being drafted sixth overall in 2002, Zack Greinke battled depression and social anxiety disorder before following up a positive 2008 with the best pitching performance of 2009 – 2.16 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 242 K. Pitching for the punchless Royals held Greinke to 16 wins. Greinke was sensational throughout the season – with an 0.50 ERA in April and an 0.55 ERA in September. Greinke’s 229.1 IP in 2009 was not drastically higher than 2008’s 202.1. At 26, Greinke is set to cement his place as one of baseball’s top pitchers.

TIER 2

CC Sabathia got better as the year went on. He had a 2.74 ERA after the break with 102 K in 101.1 IP. Sabathia’s postseason ERA was 1.98 with 32 K in 36.1 IP. That postseason workload followed 230 IP, the third straight season Sabathia has reached that number. So far, the workload has not seemed to bother Sabathia, who turns 30 in July. Sabathia won 19 games for the second time in three years, and, unlike Greinke and Lincecum, has no worries about getting run support.

Dan Haren had a very good year – 3.13 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, but it was comprised of two very different halves. Before the break, Haren had an ERA of 2.01 and a WHIP of just 0.81. But Haren’s usual second-half slump resulted in a 4.62 ERA, though his WHIP was still respectable at 1.26 and he continued to strike out almost a batter per inning, finishing with 223 K in 229.1 IP. Haren has five straight seasons of at least 14 wins and a WHIP of 1.22 or lower. Over the last three years, Haren’s highest ERA was 3.33 and his lowest K total was 192. So despite his drastically different halves, Haren has actually been quite consistent.

In four full seasons, Justin Verlander has won at least 17 games three times with ERA between last year’s 3.45 and 2007’s 3.66. In 2009, Verlander had a career-best 1.18 WHIP, but the number that really stood out was his major-league best 269 K, which shattered his previous high of 183. Verlander had 240 IP after throwing 201.1 and 201 IP the last two seasons. The Tigers are apparently unworried that Verlander’s workload could result in another off-year like his 2008 – they just signed Verlander to a 5-year, $80M contract.

In his first seven starts, Johan Santana has an ERA of 0.78. He struck out ten or more batters three times. Then Santana’s year fell apart along with the Mets’ season, and he ended up undergoing surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow. While the Mets’ 2009 injury woes are continuing with fellow stars Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran, Santana appears to be fully recovered from his surgery and ready to resume his dominance. Santana had similar surgery before the 2004 season, when he won his first Cy Young.

Adam Wainwright’s ERA the last three seasons: 3.70, 3.20, 2.63. Wainwright’s 1.21 WHIP was actually higher than 2008’s 1.18, but his 212 K were more than 50% higher than his previous best of 136. Add in 19 wins, and Wainwright came close to winning the NL Cy Young. At 28, Wainwright has a good chance of contending for the award again.

TIER 3

Jon Lester’s 15 W, 3.41 ERA and 1.23 WHIP were similar to his 2008 numbers: 16, 3.21, 1.27. but his Ks jumped from 152 to 225 in seven fewer innings. For the second straight season, Lester’s ERA and WHIP went down in the second half. Despite a big rise in IP from 2008 to 2009, Lester managed to defy the Verducci Effect. The rise in Ks gives the 26-year-old Lester a shot to become a fantasy ace this season.

Cole Hamels became an ace in 2008 at 24, going 14-10 with a 3.09 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 196 K and winning both the NLCS and World Series MVPs. But in 2009, Hamels tailed off to 10-11, 4.32 ERA, 1.29 WHIP. Perhaps it was all the innings he threw in 2008 – 227.1 in the regular season and another 35 in the postseason. The Verducci Effect predicted trouble for Hamels, who had some elbow discomfort in spring training 2009 and missed Opening Day. Or maybe it was that his BABIP jumped 58 points. Hamels’ HR and BB allowed were basically the same as before. While Hamels again got to the World Series, his overall 2009 IP – 193.2 plus 19.1 in the postseason, was much lower in 2009. Still only 26, Hamels could regain his ace status this season as Justin Verlander did last year.

Josh Beckett has been a good, not great fantasy pitcher since coming to Boston. In four seasons, 2009’s 3.86 ERA was his second-lowest and his 1.19 WHIP tied for second-lowest. Beckett’s 199 K was his highest Boston total. He has at least 16 wins three out of the four years, including 17 last season. Beckett might well have been a fantasy ace last season if he were not in the AL East. He had a 5.34 ERA in five games against the Yankees, 5.02 ERA in five games against the Rays and 10.45 ERA in two games against Toronto. Beckett turns 30 in May and is in a contract year.

Matt Cain had a breakout year with career bests in wins (14), ERA (2.89) and WHIP (1.18). His Ks dipped slightly but so did his walks. Cain’s HR total has risen the last three years from 14 to 19 to 22. At 25, Cain can continue to improve, but he does not figure to get a lot of wins with the Giants’ run support.

Javier Vazquez went from a 4.67 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with the White Sox in the AL in 2008 to a career-best 2.87 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with the Braves in the NL. Now he returns to the AL and returning to the Yankees, with whom he had his worst ERA in the last decade – 4.91 in 2004. Vazquez actually got off to a good start in 2004 and made the All-Star team with 10 wins, 3.56 ERA and 1.15 WHIP at the break. But his second-half numbers were grisly – 6.92 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. Still, Vazquez has plenty to offer, even if he is unlikely to duplicate his 2009. Vazquez never gets hurt – at least 198 IP each of the last ten years. Vazquez has a career WHIP of 1.25. and a career K/9 of 8.1. Pitching for the Yankees, Vazquez stands to get a lot of wins.

Cliff Lee followed his 2008 Cy Young season (2.54 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 22 wins) with a good, not great, season split between Cleveland and Philadelphia, finishing with a 3.22 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Lee threw a career-high 231.2 IP, followed by 40.1 IP in his sensational postseason (4-0, 1.56 ERA, 0.82 WHIP). Lee had surgery to remove a bone spur from his foot but is said to be fully recovered. On March 17, Lee was suspended for the first five games of the regular season after throwing over a hitter’s head in an exhibition game. He is expected to appeal. Lee loses Philly’s run support, but he is moving to a pitcher’s park and will be in a contract year.

After winning 12 games with a 3.10 ERA as a rookie in 2006, Josh Johnson underwent Tommy John surgery and did not pitch a full season again until 2009, when he won 15 games with a 3.23 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 191 K in 209 IP. Johnson’s IP were 52 above his career high, earning him a spot on the Verducci Effect list. But the low-payroll Marlins believe in Johnson enough to sign him to a four-year, $39M deal.

TIER 4

Yovani Gallardo had 204 K in 185 IP, but also 94 walks. In fact, except for the Ks, allardo’s numbers – 3.73 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 13 wins – were not special. But Gallardo, who just turned 24, is projected to become an ace at some point.

Tommy Hanson came up in June and quickly became one of the best pitchers in the NL. In 21 starts, Hanson went 11-4 with a 2.89 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 116 K in 127.2 IP. Unlike fellow rookie star J.A. Happ, Hanson, 23, is projected to become an ace, perhaps as soon as this year.

Clayton Kershaw had one of the top ERAs in the NL at 2.79. His first half was good, but his second half was great - 2.27 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 86 K in only 77.1 IP. Talk about a lack of run support - Kershaw only went 1-3 in 13 second-half starts. Kershaw is a star in the making, and he only turned 22 on March 19.

Ubaldo Jimenez won 15 games with a 3.47 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 198 K. Jimenez was stronger in the second half with a 3.08 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. At 26, Jimenez has become that rare Colorado pitcher worth drafting high. This ground-ball pitcher actually likes pitching in Colorado – Jimenez’ career ERA at home is .80 lower than his road mark.

After winning 16 games with a 3.14 ERA and 201 K in 2008, Chad Billingsley was on a similar pace when he collapsed in the second half with a 5.20 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. Billingsley went from making the All-Star team to being left out of the postseason rotation. Billingsley did miss a start with a hamstring strain, but it is not clear how much the injury affected him.This spring, Billingsley says he has corrected a flaw in his delivery, which can put the 25-year-old back on the road to stardom.

TIER 5

Wandy Rodriguez’s ERA has dropped significantly the last four seasons: 5.64, 4.58, 3.54, 3.02. Along with ERA, Rodriguez shattered other career highs, finishing with14 wins, 1.24 WHIP and 193 K. Rodriguez continues to have a significant home/road split - 2.08 ERA and 1.06 WHIP at home vs. 4.05 ERA and 1.44 WHIP on the road. Rodriguez is 31, so it is not clear how much more he can improve.

Ricky Nolasco ended up with decent numbers, with one big exception. Nolasco had 13 wins, 1.25 WHIP and 195 K in 185 IP. But Nolasco also had a 5.06 ERA. Nolasco had such a miserable first part of the season that he got sent to the minors in late May with an ERA of 9.07. But Nolasco quickly returned and had an ERA of 3.82 the rest of the way. A return to 2008’s, 15 wins, 3.52 ERA and 1.10 WHIP seems attainable.

Matt Garza failed to build on his promising 2008, with one exception. Garza’s ERA and WHIP rose from 3.70 and 1.24 to 3.95 and 1.26. But Garza’s Ks soared to 189 in 203 IP. Garza has pitched much better at home in his two years in Tampa. Oddly enough, Garza’s lowest road ERA was 0.75 in two starts at Yankee Stadium and his third-best was 2.95 at Fenway. Lefties only batted .196 against the righthanded Garza, while righties hit .271. If Garza, 26, can do a little better against righties and on the road, he can become one of the AL’s best pitchers.

Photo by artolog.

But every now and then, someone comes along that redefines the fantasy position. Someone like Joe Mauer.

TIER 1 - THE MVP

In five seasons, Joe Mauer has played in more than 140 games only once. Last season, he missed the first month with a lower back problem.

And he still won the MVP.

Mauer hit .365 to win his third batting title in four years. He hit 28 homers, more than double his previous high of 13. But power was projected for Mauer when he was the first pick in the 2001 draft, so there is good reason to expect Mauer’s power is here to stay. Mauer drove in 96 and scored 94 in the middle of an improving Twins’ lineup.

Mauer is entering his contract year, though his agent has been negotiating with the Twins during spring training.

Mauer turns 27 in April. He would be an early pick at any position. But at catcher, Mauer might offer the greatest disparity with the rest of the field.

TIER 2 - THE ESTABLISHED STARS

In each of his four full seasons, Brian McCann has hit between 18 and 24 homers (21 in 2009) and driven in between 87 and 94 runs (94 last year). McCann has hit .300 twice (.281 in 2009).

McCann had trouble seeing at the start of last season due to problems stemming from his Lasik surgery, ending up on the DL. McCann had a second Lasik surgery this offseason and says that everything is fine now.

At 26, McCann should be entering his prime.

Victor Martinez‘ 23 homers and 108 RBI were identical to his numbers in 2004. He has four 20-homer seasons, four years with at least 90 RBI  and four years batting .300. Martinez hit .303 in 2009, but after arriving in Boston in midseason, he hit .336.

Martinez played almost half his games at 1B last season. He had a .942 OPS in those games, as opposed to .783 when he was catching. In 2010, Martinez is likely to focus on catcher in 2010 unless something happens to 1B Kevin Youkilis or DH David Ortiz.

Martinez is 31, but has played in at least 147 games four of the last five seasons. He is entering a contract year.

TIER 3 - THE PHENOM

Uber-prospect Matt Wieters got off to a slow start after he was called up in May, but Wieters showed his potential when he hit .362 in May. Wieters turns 24 in May, so he may be a year or two away, but stardom is coming.

TIER 4 - PART-TIME PLAYERS, FULLTIME POWER?

Jorge Posada put up strong stats - 22-81-.285 - in only 383 AB. It was his eighth season of at least 20 homers and 80 RBI. The new Yankee Stadium fueled Posada’s season; he hit 14 of his homers at home while batting .325, as opposed to .245 on the road.

Posada only appeared in 111 games last year, and while the above numbers show he can be quite productive in limited time, he only played 51 games in 2008 and will be 39 in August.

With Hideki Matsui gone to the Angels, Posada may have more of a chance to DH, since the spot is now filled by oft-injured Nick Johnson.

*

In 2009, AL MVP runnerup Mark Teixeira hit 39 homers in 609 AB while scoring 103 runs.

Over the last two seasons, Mike Napoli has 40 homers in 609 AB while scoring 99 runs.

Napoli also has 105 RBI and a .272 BA over that time period.

Unfortunately, what the 28-year-old Napoli does not have is a full-time job, since he shares catching duties with Jeff Mathis, whose defense Angels manager Mike Scioscia prefers.

Napoli did get 382 AB in 114 games last year, after 227 AB in 2008, while Mathis’ AB dropped from 283 to 237.  Mathis has also batted .211 and .194 the last two years.

Meanwhile, Napoli hit four homers in his first 17 spring AB in 2010.

If Napoli can take more AB away from Mathis, he moves up the list. But even if he does not, a part-time Napoli can still provide more value than most fulltime catchers.

TIER 5 - CAN THEY DO IT AGAIN?

Miguel Montero, does not have the upside of Wieters, but he has already been productive, going 11-40-.316 in the second half to finish at 16-59-.294 in 425 AB. The 26-year-old needs to show he can perform at a high level over a full season. Chris Snyder will challenge Montero for playing time, but Montero, who is also strong defensively, should be the main starter.

After going 15-69-.318 in 2008, Ryan Doumit’s 2009 was ruined when he broke his wrist in April and was out for three months. After his return, Doumit hit .176 in August, but .346 in September. If Doumit, who will be 29 on Opening Day, can stay healthy, he  can move back toward his 2008 numbers, but that is a big if since he has been injury-prone throughout his career.

Geovany Soto was the 2008 NL Rookie of the Year, going 23-86-.285. But in 2009, Soto only hit .218 with 11 homers and 47 RBI in 389 AB. Soto had injuries to his shoulder and oblique, appeared to be overweight and failed a drug test at the World Baseball Classic.

Soto showed up this spring 40 pounds lighter and appears ready to recapture his 2008 form. Another factor that suggests that 2009 was an atypical year for Soto was his extremely low .251 BABIP.

Kurt Suzuki’s most important stat might have been his 570 AB, ranking him second among catchers to Victor Martinez. Suzuki caught 135 games and was DH in eight more. Playing so often and remaining healthy enabled Suzuki to rack up some pretty good counting stats for a catcher - 15 homers, 88 RBI and 74 runs while hitting .274. Suzuki even managed eight steals.

Suzuki is 26 and projected to hit in the top part of the A’s lineup. He may not have the upside of some other catchers, but he could end up accumulating better stats than most of them, just as he did in 2009 when he finished third among catchers in runs and fourth in RBI.

Chris Iannetta failed to build on his 2008 18-65-.264, falling to 16-52-.228. After hitting .193 in August, he was benched for much of September in favor of Yorvit Torrealba. But Torrealba is gone and Iannetta, who turns 27 in April, has his starting job back. As with Soto, a big drop in BABIP last year suggests that he could regain his lost BA.

TIER 6 -  HEADING DOWN

Russell Martin has caught a lot of games the last few years - 145 in 2007, 149 in 2008 and 137 in 2009, and it appears to be taking a toll on his numbers. Martin went from 19-87-.293 with 21 steals in 2007 to 7-53-.250 with 11 steals in 2009.

On March 7, it was reported that the 27-year-old Martin will be out four to six weeks after pulling a groin muscle. So Martin is likely to miss Opening Day and possibly much of April, adding to the uncertainty around him. Martin is the rare catcher who runs, but his injury could affect his steals.

Bengie Molina had a career-high 20 homers with 80 RBI and a .265 BA. Molina has reached 80 RBI all three years with the Giants and has reached 19 homers three of the last four seasons. Molina was in a position to get RBI because he batted cleanup last year and in 2008, but figures to hit lower in the lineup this season.

But Molina will be 36 in July and must fend off top prospect Buster Posey, who appeared likely to catch in AAA but now has a shot at making the team as a backup catcher and 1B. Even if Posey does not make the team out of spring training, he could start cutting into Molina’s time by midseason.

AND BEAR IN MIND

Yadier Molina has offered steady, if unspectacular, production for the last two years, with a good BA but low power: 6-54-.293 in 2009 and 7-56-.304 in 2008. He is projected to bat sixth for the Cardinals, behind Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday and Ryan Ludwick. Molina turns 28 in July.

A.J. Pierzynski has gotten at least 440 AB for eight straight years. He has double-digit homers for seven straight seasons. Pierzynski hit .300 last year and has batted at least .280 three of the last four seasons. He is projected to bat fifth for theWhite Sox, between Paul Konerko and Alex Rios. Pierzynski is 33 and in the final year of his contract.

Photo by Keith Allison.

Fantasy OF - Part 1

As you get deeper into the outfielder pool, you start to balance upside and risk. But the pool is deep enough that you can take chances on a couple of players in this second list of 24 outfielders.

In a 12-team league, once you have four outfielders, there will be plenty of options left for a fifth OF, and once the season starts, this spot can be upgraded on the waiver wire.

BIG NAMES, BUT NOT WHAT THEY ONCE WERE

Manny Ramirez went 19-63-.290 in 352 AB, almost the same numbers he had in the first part of the 2008 season - 20-68-.299 in 365 AB - when he forced his way out of Boston. But Ramirez’ 2009 was the end result of two drastically different halves - 1.156 OPS before the All-Star break, when he played only 36 games due to his 50-game suspension after testing positive for a banned substance, and .838 OPS after the break. Ramirez turns 38 in May, so the decline may have started.

Raul Ibanez, born four days after Ramirez in the spring of 1972, also got off to a blistering start in 2009, going 22-60-.309 before the break. But Ibanez injured his groin in June, missing three weeks, and was not the same when he returned. Ibanez’ overall numbers were still good - 34-93-.272 - but his second-half OPS was .774, down from 1.015 in the first half. Ibanez had sports hernia surgery after the season, so perhaps the injury had something to do with his second-half slump. Ibanez could continue his track record of 20+ HR, but 34 again is optimistic at his age, particular since the surge did not come from his new home park - only 13 of Ibanez’ 34 homers were hit in Citizens Bank Park.

If Carlos Beltran is healthy, he is one of the best outfielders in baseball. But that is a huge if, considering that Beltran will miss at least the first month of the season after undergoing knee surgery. Beltran turns 33 in April - when and how he comes back in anyone’s guess. At some point in your draft, he will be worth the gamble, but that is what he is right now - a gamble.

In 2009, Alfonso Soriano’s third straight injury-shortened season, his OPS fell to .726. If he were still eligible at second, that would have placed him 18^th at the position - just behind Luis Castillo. In 477 AB, Soriano went 20-55-.241 with nine steals. At 34, Soriano’s 40-40 days are long gone. Soriano’s only number not in decline is his strikeouts - his K/BB ratio was 118/40.

Johnny Damon hit 17 of his 24 homers at Yankee Stadium, but his other fantasy stats - R, RBI, BA, and steals - were pretty much the same at home and on the road. So Damon’s good year was not entirely a product of the new ballpark. But Damon does not figure to reach his 2009 totals of 107 runs and 82 RBI away from the Yankee lineup. And after three straight years of at least 25 steals, Damon only managed 12. The 36-year-old Damon already has an injury this spring - turf toe.

SOMEWHAT BIG NAMES WHO MIGHT NOT LIVE UP TO THEIR REPUTATION

Did the Pirates sell high on Nate McLouth?  In his breakout 2008, McLouth’s OPS was .853. It was .819 in Pittsburgh at the time of the midseason trade to Atlanta, where his OPS fell to .773. McLouth did come within one steal of his second straight 20-20 season and he should be in his prime at 28, but you’ll have to make up BA elsewhere - 2009’s .256 was not far off his lifetime BA of .260.

Carlos Quentin had a breakout year in 2008, going 36-100-.287 before missing the final month with a broken wrist. But Quentin struggled with plantar fasciitis in 2009 and fell to 21-56-.236. He also did not have the pins removed from his wrist until after the 2009 season. Quentin is 27 and says he is now completely healthy, so he could regain his 2008 form - or maybe that was his career year.

UP AND COMING

Andrew McCutchen had 12 HR, 22 steals and 74 runs in 104 games, while batting .286 after his midseason callup. At 23, McCutchen is a rising star with potentially big upside.  He may not reach his potential for a few years, but he can help your SB while contributing in other categories as well.

In 194 AB after the break, Carlos Gonzalez hit .320 with 12 homers, 11 steals and 42 runs. In the postseason, Gonzalez went 10 for 17 with a homer and two steals. At 24, Gonzalez, part of the package the Rockies received for Matt Holliday, could be on the verge of a big year. And playing his home games in Colorado does not hurt, either.

Jay Bruce has shown a lot of power in his brief career - 43 homers in 758 AB - but also has a lifetime BA of .240. Bruce’s lifetime BA against lefties is only .198. But if you are able to play him only against righties, he has 38 of his homers off them in 521 AB. Bruce will be 23 at the start of the season, so he has plenty of time to continue to justify the promise of being selected 12^th in the 2005 draft, whose top ten featured Justin Upton, Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki.

Denard Span went 8-68-.311 with 97 runs and 23 steals in his first full season. He hit .331 after the break. Span did get thrown out 10 times, so he does not appear to be developing into a great base stealer. But as the Twins’ leadoff hitter, he should again the in the position to score a lot of runs and help your fantasy team.

POWER, NO SPEED

Jason Kubel (28 in May) broke out, going 28-103-.300 with a .907 OPS. Kubel turns 28 in May, so he figures to keep producing in the Twins’ increasingly strong lineup. Kubel is more valuable in daily leagues, since you want to bench him against lefties, against whom he had a .643 OPS in 2009, as opposed to 1.014 against righties.

Brad Hawpe, 31, has four straight years of at least 20 homers, 80 RBI and a .280 BA. Hawpe made the All-Star team with a 14-59-.320 first half, but slumped to 9-27-.240 after the break. Hawpe had a .955 OPS vs. righties but only .775 vs. lefties and found himself on the bench against lefties in the later part of the year.

Michael Cuddyer went 32-94-.276, only the second time the former first round pick, who will be 31 at the start of the season, had more than 20 homers and 90 RBI.  Cuddyer’s OPS was much higher against lefties (1.013-.803). Cuddyer is also eligible at first base.

Ryan Ludwick went 37-113-.299 in 2008 but tailed off to 22-97-.265 last season. But 2009’s BA and .447 SLG were similar to Ludwick’s 267 and .479 in 2007, so it’s the 2008 season that looks like the outlier, particularly since Ludwick turns 32 in July. But  Ludwick’s RBIs have a shot at going back over 100 with a full season of batting behind Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday.

SPEED, NO POWER

Michael Bourn broke out with a .285 BA, 97 runs and 61 steals. Bourn kept up the steals pace the entire year, swiping 29 after the break. In 2008, Bourn had 41 steals, but only hit .229. Bourn just turned 27, so the steals should keep coming.

After Pittsburgh traded him to Washington, Nyjer Morgan hit .351 with 24 steals and 35 runs in 49 games before breaking his hand in August and missing the rest of the season. Morgan is a career .303 hitter (bear in mind he only has 736 AB) who rarely walks, so he could help your BA that much more. Morgan could give you plenty of steals and runs at the top of the Nationals’ improving lineup.

Oakland’s midseason trades of Matt Holliday and Orlando Cabrera opened up a spot in the outfield and in the second spot of the batting order, and Rajai Davis took full advantage, hitting .325 with 46 runs, 42 RBI and 30 steals in 277 AB.  As impressive as those numbers are, the steals and runs are actually in line with Davis’ career rates - 93 steals and 128 runs in 808 career AB, along with a .280 BA. Davis is now 29, has no power, and the arrival of Coco Crisp and Gabe Gross could cut into his playing time somewhat.

Juan Pierre’s streak of eight straight years of at least 40 steals came to an end, but with 30 steals in 380 AB, the main thing holding him back was opportunity, which did not arise much for Pierre except during Manny Ramirez’s suspension. Pierre had 20 of his steals in May and June. Pierre hit .308 and has batted under .280 only once in his career. Pierre is now 32 but does not appear to be slowing down. As the White Sox’ fulltime leadoff hitter, Pierre should have plenty of chances to keep running.

In 2007, Alex Rios went 24-85-.297 with 114 runs and 17 steals. Less than two years later, the Blue Jays gave him away to get out from under his enormous contract and he finished the year hitting only .199 in 41 games for the White Sox, with an OPS of just .530. Rios is only 28 and did end up with 17 homers and 24 steals last year, so if he can just get his BA up from 2009’s final mark of .247, he can regain his luster. The White Sox also plan to run more this year, which could help Rios’ steals, though he is projected to bat sixth.

After two straight 20-20 seasons, Corey Hart managed only 12 homers and 11 steals, though he only had 419 AB due to broken fingers and an appendectomy. Hart hit just .260, but that was not too far off his .268 in 2008. In fact, Hart’s OPS of .753 was almost the same as 2008’s .759.  Hart will be 28 at the start of the season and is projected to hit fifth, behind Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder.

Pittsburgh’s midseason trade of Nyjer Morgan to the Nationals worked out great for Morgan, but it also helped the Pirates by giving Garrett Jones a change to play. Jones hit .293 with 21 homers in 358 AB. His OPS of .938 would have been sixth-best in MLB, just ahead of Alex Rodriguez, if he had enough AB to qualify. Jones also had 10 steals and offers both OF and 1B eligibility. Jones turns 29 in June and is unlikely to duplicate 2009, but he can still help your team, particularly if you are able to bench him against lefties. Jones’ OPS against lefties was .698, as opposed to 1.046 against righties.

Nolan Reimold came up in May as a 25-year-old rookie and hit 15 homers with 8 steals in 358 AB, along with a .279 BA before going down with a partial tear of his Achilles tendon that required surgery. The Orioles were taking it slow with Reimold early in spring training, but he is expected to be fine for the regular season, at which point he can continue to develop his power potential. But he may be hitting as low as eighth against righties.

Chris Coghlan hit an astonishing .372 after the break to finish at .321 and win the NL Rookie of the Year Award.  With nine homers and eight steals, Coghlan’s main value so far comes from his BA. While Coghlan was a supplemental first-round pick in 2006, his rapid rise came as a surprise, so expect some regression this year.

OTHERS TO CONSIDER

After a couple of mediocre years in Cleveland, Franklin Gutierrez came to Seattle and began to develop into a five-category player, going 18-70-.283 with 16 steals and 85 runs. At 27, Gutierrez could build on his 2009, but he also needs to show that he can do it again.

Nick Swisher’s 29-82-.249 was actually typical of his production - his career 162-game average is 28-86-.245. Coming to Yankee Stadium did not help Swisher, who hit only eight of his homers at home while batting just .226. Swisher is also eligible at 1B.

Photo by Malingering.

Fantasy Baseball OF Rankings - Part 2

Fantasy Baseball: Outfield offers the best place to land a five-category star like Ryan Braun (pictured), a power-speed threat like Matt Kemp or a speed demon like Carl Crawford. And outfield goes much deeper than the biggest stars. 37 outfielders had 20 homers, while 25 had 20 steals. But only seven had both 20 homers and 20 steals. So do not wait too long to start filling your outfield.

With three slots, you can focus on landing two strong outfielders while waiting on the third. You can always grab a lesser outfielder later in the draft or gamble on a sleeper. In a twelve-team league, outfielders will be available on the waiver wire. So try to come out of the draft with two of the following top 24:

TIER 1

Ryan Braun was the only player in the majors with 30 homers, 20 steals and a .300 BA. In fact, he hit .320 - the second time in his three seasons he has reached that mark. All three years, Braun has at least 30 homers and double-digit steals. His 113 runs ranked fourth in MLB. Braun is still only 26, so he figures to improve on his already great stats.

Matt Kemp stole at least 34 bases and batted over .290 for the second straight year, but also increased his homers from 18 to 26, despite batting sixth or lower in 94 starts. At 25 and finally in more favorable spots in the order, expect more five-tool greatness from Kemp.

Aside from his injury-plagued 2008, Carl Crawford has 50 steals in five of his six full seasons, and 46 in the other year. He has hit .300 in four years and .296 in another year.

Crawford’s 15 homers were consistent with his usual output, but you’ll take 15 longballs if Crawford gets 60 steals again. But bear in mind that 44 of those steals came in the first half, and Crawford was only 16-for-25 in steals after the break. Still, at 28, Crawford would still seem to have plenty of basestealing left, and plenty of motivation to produce  in the final year of his contract.

TIER 2

At 21, Justin Upton hit .300 with 26 homers and 20 steals despite missing time with a strained oblique. He has been projected to be a superstar since going first overall in the 2005 draft, ahead of top-ten picks such as Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki and should reach the top tier of outfielders before too long. Arizona just signed Upton to a six-year, $51.25M contract.

In Matt Holliday’s sensational 2007, when he finished 2^nd in the NL MVP voting, he had an OPS of 1.012. After coming to St. Louis in July of 2009, Holliday had an OPS of 1.023, hitting 13 homers in 235 AB with a BA of .353. Batting behind Albert Pujols, Holliday should continue to put up great numbers. But his steals could go down - while he still finished with his fifth straight season with double-digit steals, Holliday only had two thefts in 270 PA with the Cardinals while getting thrown out four times.

TIER 3

Jacoby Ellsbury tied a Red Sox record with 70 steals after getting 50 the year before. But Ellsbury’s power numbers are more suited to a middle infielder and, while he hits for average, his 94 runs ranked only fourth on his own team.  Ellsbury is 26 and he had 12 steals in September, so he figures to keep piling up the steals, but not necessarily other numbers. For those playing in leagues with specific OF slots, Ellsbury is moving from CF to LF.

Grady Sizemore is only a year removed from a 30-30 season that made him a first-round pick. But in 2009, he appeared in only 106 games and hit .248. Now said to be healthy, Sizemore has been moved to the number 2 spot in the order, which he thinks could give him more of an opportunity to drive in runs. But does the move mean he will run less? New leadoff batter Asdrubal Cabrera stole 17 bases in 21 tries, while Sizemore only managed 13 steals in 21 attempts.

Ichiro’s lack of walks makes his lifetime .333 BA that much more valuable. Even in a season in which he went on the DL for the first time and missed 16 games, Ichiro still had 225 hits to go with his .352 BA. His steals were down to 26 and Ichiro is now 36, so draft him more for the BA than for the steals. But with 63 infield hits last year, Ichiro still has some life in his legs.

TIER 4

Jayson Werth’s 36 homers and 99 RBI blew away his career highs. He also stole 20 bases for the second straight year. Only one other player - Mark Reynolds - had more homers while also stealing 20. Werth’s.268 BA was around his lifetime mark of .275. Werth turns 31 this season, so 2009 might have been a career year. But he is also playing for a new contract this season.

Coming to Citi Field may not affect Jason Bay‘s homer totals as much as one might think. Bay hit only 15 of his 36 homers in 2009 at Fenway Park.  In his next-best homer year, 2006, Bay, then with the Pirates, hit only 13 of his 35 homers at PNC. But while Bay is a career .280 hitter, he hit .267 last year and .247 in 2007. Bay stole 13 bases last year, and could improve on that number. The heart of the Mets’ order figures to run more than most with With Jose Reyes slated to start the season batting third and David Wright coming off a 27-steal year.

Adam Lind delivered on his potential with a 35-114-.305 breakout year. He did not tail off - his second-half numbers were practically the same as those in his first half.  His OPS was much better against righties than lefties - .992-.780 - but the latter figure is good enough to keep him in the lineup against everyone. Even if the 26-year-old Lind regresses a bit in 2010, he can still put up solid numbers.

Curtis Granderson had 30 HR and 20 steals in 2009, his second 20-20 season in three years. But he hit only .249, mainly due to a .183 BA vs. lefties. With Nick Johnson currently considered the leading choice to bat second for the Yankees, Granderson could hit as low as seventh. Granderson hit only 10 of his 30 HR at Comerica, so his HR total could go up now that his home games are at Yankee Stadium.

TIER 5

Nick Markakis looked like a rising fantasy star when he went 23-112-.300 with 18 steals in 2007 at age 23. But he failed to dramatically improve in 2008, and last year finished 18-101-.293 with only six steals. Still a solid year, and he is still young enough to improve, but draft him on what he has done, not what he might do.

Bobby Abreu continued to be a five-category player in his first season with the Angels, hitting .293 with 15 HR, 103 RBI, 96 R and 30 steals. Abreu has been remarkably consistent for over a decade, so continue to count on him. Just know that Abreu will be 36 at the start of the season, so at some point, he will start to decline, particularly in steals.

At 33, Carlos Lee was still productive, going 26-102-.300. It was his fourth straight year batting .300, fifth straight with 100 RBI and tenth straight with at least 20 HR. But the homers are starting to dip - he had five straight years of 30 or more ending in 2007. But while Abreu has continued to excel in five categories, Lee no longer gets double-digit steals and his runs scored were down to 65. Unlike Abreu, Lee has to play for the weak-hitting Astros.

Andre Ethier sacrified average for power, moving from 20-77-.305 in 2008 to 31-106-.272 in 2009. His strikeouts rose from 88 to 116 in 71 more AB. Ethier hit only .194 against lefties with a .629 OPS, compared to .302/960 vs. righties.  Ethier turns 28 in April.

Injuries have now curtailed two of Josh Hamilton’s three seasons. But he has also had an OPS higher than .900 in two of his three seasons. Throw in his off-the-field issues, including a relapse last year, and you have a very unpredictable player who went from 32-130-.304 with a .901 OPS in 2008 to 10-54-.268 with a .741 OPS in 89 games last season.  Split the difference of those two extremes and draft based on that, with the hope that he can recapture his 2008 magic.

For the second straight year, a Rangers outfielder was a late-blooming star. Nelson Cruz followed Hamilton’s 2008 by hitting 33 homers and stealing 20 bases in only 128 games at age 29. But Cruz hit only .260 and at this point is expected to hit seventh in 2010.

TIER 6

Shin-Soo Choo built on his promising 2008 with 20 HR, 21 steals and a .300 BA. At 27, Choo has a good chance of going 20-20 again. .300 might be a bit much to expect since he had 151 Ks, but Choo does have a lifetime BA of .295 over his brief MLB career.

On June 1, Adam Jones was hitting .344 with 11 HR and 36 RBI in 45 games. But after an injury-plagued second half, Jones finished at 19-70-.277 with 10 steals. Jones is 24 and projected to be a future star, but do not draft him thinking he is already a star. Draft him based on his actual yearend numbers and factor in his great upside.

Hunter Pence’s 25-72-.282 with 14 steals was slightly better than his 2008 season. Pence improved his BB/K rate from 40/124 to 58/109. His steal rate is poor - 14 of 25 last year and 11 of 21 in 2008. Pence turns 27 in April, so he could continue to improve - or have a breakout year along the lines of what was predicted for him after his great debut in 2007.

After hitting seven homers in the 2008 postseason, B.J. Upton only hit 11 in all of 2009, along with a .241 BA. Upton did have 42 steals. Perhaps Upton was still recovering from his shoulder surgery before the season. Upton is still only 25, but before you draft him hoping he will regain his 2007 form, when he hit .300 with 24 HR and 22 steals, bear in mind that Upton’s OPS dropped from .894 in 2007 to just .686 last year.

Shane Victorino’s 10-62-.292 was in line with what we have come to expect from him. But after stealing 37 and 36 bases the previous two years, Victorino’s theft total dipped to 25. Victorino did score 102 runs for the second year in a row, but that total is likely to go down this year now that he is moving to the seventh spot in the order with new Phillie 3B Placido Polanco slated to bat second. In the first week of exhibition games, Victorino was battling a sore shoulder, but the injury does not appear to be serious.

Torii Hunter was 17-65-.305 at the All-Star break with 13 steals, but was hurt much of the second half and finished at 22-90-.299 with 18 steals. Hunter turns 35 in July. He has played more than 150 games only twice in his career. Hunter had sports hernia surgery in the offseason but appears to be fully recovered. He is still productive, but do not draft him hoping he can duplicate his first-half numbers over a whole season.

Photo by Steve Paluch.

Fantasy Baseball:

TIER 1

After slumping to an .801 OPS in June, here are Alex Rodriguez’ OPS figures the rest of the year: July: .905; August: .942; September: .958; Postseason: 1.308. A-Rod erased all doubts about his hip; he even continued to steal bases.

Before last season, A-Rod had alternated seasons of 35 or so homers with years when he hit around 50 longballs. Rodriguez turns 35 next season, so do not expect a return to 2007’s 54 homers. But a return to 2008’s 35-104-.302 is still earns you the first round.

TIER 2

Evan Longoria’s 2009 included three months in which his OPS was .752 or lower. In the other three months, Longoria’s OPS was 1.134, 1.023, .937. And he might even have more to offer in steals - Longoria went 9-for-9 last year after going 7-for-7 as a rookie in 2008. He is 24 and only getting better.

David Wright hit just five homers at his new home, Citi Field, but he only hit five on the road as well. After two years of almost identical BB/K splits - 99/115 and 99/118 - Wright regressed to 74/140.

Wright had a particularly dramatic left/right split - .416 BA and 1.142 OPS vs. lefties and .277/.754 vs. righties. With Carlos Delgado gone, switch-hitter Carlos Beltran starting the year on the DL, and Jason Bay joining Jeff Francoeur in the outfield, the Mets are a lot more righthanded to start the season, meaning Wright could face fewer lefthanders.

Nobody can say for sure what happened to Wright last season. His concussion occurred on August 15, meaning it had nothing to do with the bulk of his mixed year. (Wright did hit only .223 in September after coming off the DL.) Wright has a lot of uncertainty for someone who figures to go in the second round. Depending on how his spring goes, it might be better to take a surer thing with one of your top picks.

TIER 3

Mark Reynolds was the only player in 2009 with 40 homers and 20 steals. He also set the all-time strikeout record with 223, shattering the record of 204, set in 2008 - by Mark Reynolds.

If Reynolds can keep up the power and speed, the low BA and strikeouts will not matter. But Reynolds only stole 11 bases over his first two seasons, and only 11 in four minor league seasons.

Even if Reynolds reverts somewhat to his 2008 totals of 28 homers, 11 steals and a .239 BA, he would still have one of the top power-speed combos at third base. (Or at 1B, where Reynolds also has eligibility.) But with those skyrocketing strikeouts, it is likely that if you draft Reynolds, you will have to find a player or players at other positions to make up the damage to your BA.

In one year, Wright went from being the best young third baseman in the NL to possibly not the best in the NL East. Ryan Zimmerman had the kind of year (minus steals) that Wright had hoped to have. After an injury-plagued 2008, Zimmerman delivered on the promise of his 20-homer seasons in 2006 and 2007, while also setting a new high in BA.

Kevin Youkilis led all third base eligibles last season with a .961 OPS. The previous season, it was .958. Both years Youkilis finished in the top six in MVP balloting. Youkilis also has 1B eligibility.

After hitting .345 in limited action in 2008, Pablo Sandoval showed that the high average was for real, batting .330 and adding 25 homers. Too bad he is on the Giants, which lowers his runs and RBIs. As with Reynolds and Youkilis, Sandoval has 1B eligibility.

In 12 seasons, Aramis Ramirez‘ 162-game average: 30 homers, 109 RBI, .286 BA. But as with Youkilis, Ramirez is over 30 and cannot always stay healthy. Ramirez only played in 82 games in 2009 due to a dislocated shoulder. But when he did play, Ramirez  finished with an OPS of .905.

TIER 4

If you already have your third baseman, you have the possibility of an All-Star. But now the question marks start.

Chone Figgins lacks the power you want from a 3B. It is risky to count on steals from a 32-year-old. But the Mariners like to run and age has not been stopping Ichiro on the basepaths. Just make sure that if you draft Figgins, you make up the power at 2B or SS.

Michael Young had his most homers and highest BA since 2005. But his numbers since then suggest that he is a lot more likely to maintain the BA than the homers. Young had seven straight years of at least 155 games played before injuries limited him to 135 last year.

Chipper Jones last hit 30 homers in 2004. He has only gone over 100 RBI once since then. He did hit .364 in 2008 to lead the majors in hitting, but his BA dropped exactly 100 points in 2009. Jones turns 38 in April and his 143 games played last year was his most since 2003.

Jorge Cantu followed up his 29-95-.277 2008 with another good year. The other names in this tier are much bigger, but they are also older. And Cantu has first base eligibility.

AND BEAR IN MIND

3B-eligible Gordon Beckham will probably get drafted to play second, but another player with eligibility at both spots, Ian Stewart, might still be around as the top third basemen run out. Stewart would be a great choice as a backup, since he has a lot of potential, hitting 25 homers last year, but must show he can rebound from a .228 BA.

Will Alex Gordon ever have that breakout year? If you are looking for a backup 3B, might as well take a flyer on the 2005 second-overall pick (Justin Upton was first and Zimmerman went fourth).

Photo by Keith Allison.

There is a big dropoff after the first five shortstops, meaning that they could all be gone by the end of the third round. But your top three picks should be the foundation of your team, not a place to gamble on risky picks or take a player too high because of position scarcity, which is what you will probably have to do to land some of the big names.

TIER 1

The only way to overreach with Hanley Ramirez would be to take him with the top pick over Albert Pujols. And with the great depth at first base compared to shortstop, it could be worth it. Ramirez is one of those rare players who helps you in all five categories. He and Pujols were the only two players in the top eight of OPS in 2009 who reached double digits in steals.

Ramirez is stealing less than he used to and scoring fewer runs after moving to the third spot in the batting order last season. In both 2006 and 2007, Ramirez had 51 steals. In both 2007 and 2008, Ramirez scored 125 runs. But his RBIs skyrocketed in 2009. Oh, and he led the NL in batting. Ramirez’ OPS has topped .940 three straight years.

TIER 2

Troy Tulowitzki was one of only three players in 2009 with 30 homers, 20 steals and a .280 BA (along with Chase Utley and Ryan Braun). Tulowitzki delivered on the promise of his 2007 debut, when he finished second in Rookie of the Year voting in 2007 to Braun.

But between those years, Tulowitzki batted .166 in the first half of his injury-plagued 2008. On June 6, he was batting only .216 before he heated up.

Before last year, Tulowitzki only had 11 steals for his career, so there is no guarantee that he can get back to 20.

Tulowitzki is safer than any of the remaining top shortstops, but his track record is light for someone who probably will not last past the second round.

TIER 3

By the time of your draft, we should have a much better sense of how healthy Jose Reyes is after his disastrous 2009.  But what if Reyes looks healthy, but is not running as much?

There is more to Reyes than steals; last spring, Mets’ manager Jerry Manuel experimented with batting him third. Here are Reyes’ career averages per 162 games: Runs: 113; HR: 13; RBI: 67; Steals: 62; AVG: .286. If Reyes’ steals drop to 30 but he still scores 100 runs and maintains his other numbers, he could still be one of the more valuable shortstops. Just not valuable enough to draft where he is likely to go.

Update: Shortly after the above was published, Manuel announce that he would experiment with Reyes batting third in 2010, until Carlos Beltran returns to action, which the Mets hope will be in early May. So now Reyes’ fantasy value is even more unpredictable. Be sure to monitor him closely in spring training.

Jimmy Rollins‘ 2007 MVP season is looking like a career year. Since then, his average has dropped from .296 to .277 to .250, runs from 139 to 100, homers from 30 to 21 and steals from 41 to 31, his lowest since 2004. The 31-year-old Rollins lacks the upside of Reyes. But he also lacks the downside. And with a .251 BABIP in 2009, his BA could rebound this year.

Derek Jeter’s 2009 numbers were only slightly worse than his great 2006 season, when he finished second in MVP balloting to Justin Morneau. (Jeter was third last year.) That gives Jeter two MVP-caliber seasons out of the last four.

But Jeter turns 36 in June. Only a year ago, he looked to be starting to decline after hitting 11 homers and stealing 11 bases in 2008.  Jeter hit 13 of his 18 homers at the new Yankee Stadium, so he does have a good shot at retaining his increased power. But can you count on 30 steals again at his age?

A year ago, Jeter was undervalued on draft day. Maybe he went in the seventh or eighth round. But now there is a danger that he could be overvalued.

If Reyes, Rollins or Jeter drop to the fourth round, go for it. But if there is an early run on top shortstops, it might be best to let someone else overreach. Once the top shortstops are gone, there will not be the same rush to fill the position.  You might be better off taking a lesser shortstop at a point where he could be a bargain.

TIER 4

These two Tampa Bay middle infielders were fantasy nonentities a year ago. Now they will be drafted as starters. But can they repeat their surprise success?

Ben Zobrist is also eligible at second base, where he figures to spend most of his time this season. Zobrist started 2009 as a backup and ended it finishing eighth in the voting for AL MVP. Zobrist’s .948 OPS was the same as Mark Teixeira’s. But Zobrist also added 17 steals.

Jason Bartlett shattered his career highs in 2009. His OPS of .879 was only the second time he has had an OPS over .700. Before hitting 14 homers last year, his career total was 11. Bartlett is now 30, so he likely had a career year that he won’t duplicate. But his speed is legit - he now has three straight years of 20+ steals. And he has hit at least .286 in two of the previous three years.

TIER 5

Going into 2009, they looked like stars in the making. But both players regressed last year.

Alexei Ramirez got off to a miserable start last season, hitting only .213 on May 21. While he turned his average around, he still ended up getting most of his homers and steals in the first half. After the All-Star break, Ramirez had only four homers and two steals. But Ramirez still has a better chance of double digits in homers and steals than anyone on the rest of this list.

After batting .291 with 21 HR in 2008, Stephen Drew’s numbers took a big step back last year. He only hit .200 against lefthanders. Drew was the fifteenth pick in the 2004 draft, one pick behind Billy Butler and three picks behind another brother of a major leaguer, Jered Weaver.

Drew is 27, while Ramirez is 28 and has spent only two years playing in the U.S. Both players retain their upside, even if the likelihood of stardom has lessened somewhat.

TIER 6

At 20, Elvis Andrus led all shortstops in steals. He did not offer much in any other category, but Andrus did hit .280 in the second half and he stole more bases in the second half than the first. With Reyes’ uncertainty, Andrus might be the best bet among shortstops to hit .275 with 40 steals.

Asdrubal Cabrera is also eligible at 2B, increasing his value. His 42 doubles were tied with Hanley Ramirez for second among all shortstops, one behind Rollins’ 43. Cabrera is only 24, so it is possible that some of those doubles could become homers this year to go along with his double-digit steals.

Unlike Ramirez, Yunel Escobar saw his numbers improve from 2008. He matched or beat Ramirez except for steals. But Escobar lacks Ramirez’ power/speed upside.

AND BEAR IN MIND

Miguel Tejada went 14-86-.313 last season, making him a slightly better version of Yunel Escobar. But he turns 36 this year. Tejada will switch to third base this year with the Orioles, meaning this could be the last time he makes a draft list.

Just when Rafael Furcal seemed washed up after struggling to return from back surgery, he hit .324 with five steals in September. But that only brought his totals for the year to .269 and 12 steals. Furcal is 32 and has not had a strong year since 2006.

In his second year as Angels’ shortstop, Erick Aybar hit .312 with 14 steals. He is not as well known as Tejada or Furcal, but at 26, still has the potential to improve.

Everth Cabrera stole 25 bases in 377 AB last year for San Diego. He and fellow 23-year-old Alcides Escobar, who will take over the shortstop job in Milwaukee after J.J. Hardy was traded to Minnesota, both have the potential to steal 30 bases, but probably will not offer much in other categories.

Photo by SD Dirk.

TIER 1

A year ago, Chase Utley was coming off hip surgery. Now he is coming off hitting a record-tying five homers in the World Series. Utley was one of only three players with 30 homers, 20 steals and a .280 BA (along with Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki).

Utley has been great for five years in a row. Even if 2B is deeper this year, there is no change at the top.

TIER 2

Ian Kinsler was MLB’s only 30-30 player in 2009. Only two other players with 30 steals even got to 20 homers (Matt Kemp, Jimmy Rollins). With strong RBI and R totals, Kinsler would be a first-rounder if not for his BA, which fell to .253.

But Kinsler still had a good BB/K split of 59/77. Kinsler hit only .230 against righties in 2009, compared to .310 against lefties. But his lifetime L/R split is .300/.272. Even after last year, he still has a lifetime BA of .279.

Kinsler had never hit more than 20 homers before last year, so there’s no guarantee he will get back to 30. But while Kinsler is moving to the fifth spot in the batting order, he figures to keep running - he has stolen at least 20 bases the last three years and Texas likes to run. The Rangers’ 149 steals were second-best in MLB in 2009.

TIER 3

After a 30-30 season in 2007, Brandon Phillips had his second straight 20-20 year despite hitting only six homers after the All-Star break due to an injured wrist. Batting cleanup for the Reds, Phillips drove in almost 100 runs. Phillips’ .276 BA was almost midway between his 2007 mark of .288 and 2008’s .261.

Dustin Pedroia and Brian Roberts both offer tons of runs and value across all 5×5 categories. Pedroia led the AL in runs for the second straight year. His BA fell to .296 after hitting .326 during his MVP 2008 and .317 in 2007, but his great BB/K split of 74/55 suggests his average will go back up over .300

Roberts finished third in the AL in runs, his third straight year over 100. His steals have dropped over the last three years, from 50 to 40 to 30, but he still trailed only Kinsler in the category in 2009. Roberts has at least 23 steals in seven straight years. Roberts had a career high in RBI, his most homers since 2004 and finished third in the AL in runs.

Robinson Cano is at the bottom of this tier because of his lack of steals. But if you have enough steals elsewhere that you don’t need them from your second baseman, Cano’s other categories could move him toward the top of this tier. Cano reached career highs in HR and RBI. His .320 average easily topped all 2Bs. Cano is a lifetime .306 hitter whose high average is even more valuable since it comes with a high number of AB due to his lack of walks.

TIER 4

Aaron Hill, a former no. 1 pick (he was drafted 13^th in 2003, one spot behind Lastings Milledge). Hill seemed on his way up after going 17-78-.291 in 2007, but missed most of 2008 with a concussion.  In 2009, he finally reached his potential, but was it a career year?

Ben Zobrist began the year as a utility infielder and ended it as an MVP candidate. Shuffling between second, short and the outfield, Zobrist finished with the same .948 OPS as Mark Teixeira. But Zobrist also had 17 steals. The Rays traded Akinori Iwamura to give Zobrist a permanent spot at second. But as with Hill, Zobrist needs to show he can do it again.

Gordon Beckham reached the majors only a year after being the eighth pick in the 2008 draft. After the All-Star break, Beckham had 11 HR, 43 RBI and five steals in 260 AB.

Beckham projects as a future star, but 2010 would be a big success for him if he could reach numbers that Hill and Zobrist have already achieved.

Beckham was a 3B in 2009, but is moving to 2B in 2010. So bear in mind that he may not be eligible at 2B in your league until after the season begins and he plays enough games to qualify at 2B.

TIER 5

From 2007-9, Dan Uggla hit 31 or 32 homers each season and drove in between 88 and 92 runs. But he also batted in the mid-.240s twice and only .260 the other year. Still, if you can make up the steals and BA elsewhere, he is the safest bet for homers and RBI at 2B besides Utley.

Jose Lopez has seen his HR and RBI go up the last three years: 11-62, 17-89, 25-96. His .272 BA in 2009 is roughly midway between 2008’s .297 and 2007’s .252. Lopez had a severe home/road split last year - .883 OPS on the road vs. only .641 at Safeco. But his career home/road split is much narrower, so if he can rebound at home, his numbers could go even higher.

TIER 6

Battling out out for the final spot in the top 12 are three players who have been heavily hyped during their young careers - some would say over-hyped. Any of them could break out as one of the pleasant surprises of 2010 - or continue to frustrate their owners.

Howie Kendrick rebounded from a demotion to the minors in June to hit .358 after the break, but ended up platooning with Maicer Izturis, who replaced Kendrick against righties in the playoffs. Kendrick is expected to regain the starting job in 2010. Some still think he will win a batting title one day, but he will have to have a pretty high BA to make up for what so far is not much in the way of power or speed.

Ian Stewart went 10^th in the 2003 draft, three spots ahead of Hill.  Stewart is still young enough that there is hope that he will greatly improve his grisly .228 BA in 2009, down from .259 the previous year. Stewart’s home/road splits are more narrow that one might expect from a Rockie. The split to watch is L/R - Stewart only hit .178 against lefthanded pitchers with an OPS of .664 compared to .244 and .823 against righties. Stewart is also eligible at 3B.

Rickie Weeks seemed on his way to finally justifying the hype - he was drafted second overall in 2003, eight spots ahead of Stewart - before he went down for the season with a wrist injury. At the time, Weeks had nine homers in only 37 games, along with an .857 OPS. In 2007, Weeks showed his power-speed potential with 16 homers and 25 steals, but hit only .235. Weeks has hit in the .230s three of the four seasons in which he has appeared in at least 90 games. His wrist is said to be fully healed, but this injury-plagued player has yet to show he can stay healthy enough to fulfill his potential.

KEEP IN MIND

Asdrubal Cabrera is probably more likely to be drafted as a SS, but his eligibility at both middle infield positions adds value to this promising young player, who hit .308 with 17 steals in 2009.

Photo by WebbShots.

Seven of the top eight home run hitters in 2009 were first basemen, and the eighth, Mark Reynolds, has first-base eligibility. But if you want a first baseman with both power and a good batting average, you need someone from the top tiers.

(Reynolds, Kevin Youkilis, Victor Martinez and Pablo Sandoval are not included in these  listings since they are more likely to be drafted for other positions.)

TIER 1

Albert Pujols‘ power numbers make him a first-rounder, but it is his other numbers that put him in his own tier. Pujols led the majors in runs scored last season for the fourth time. He led all first basemen in batting average. And he even stole 16 bases. Don’t count on the steals, but the dominance in the other four categories make Pujols the top choice in any fantasy draft.

TIER 2

All four of these players could be picked in the first round, and certainly no later than early in the second. We’ll give Prince Fielder the slight edge based on having hit over 45 homers two of the last three years (50, 46). Fielder turns 26 this season, meaning he  should be moving into his prime. Fielder’s 2009 OPS was third-best in all of baseball.

Mark Teixeira has only hit 40 or more homers once in his career, and that was five years ago, when he hit 43 for Texas in 2005.  30 of them were hit at what is now called Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. From 2006-2008, Teixeira averaged 32 homers per year.

But in 2009, Teixeira tied for the AL lead in homers with 39. 24 were hit at homer-happy Yankee Stadium. And all but five of his blasts were hit after May 8, when Alex Rodriguez returned to the Yankee lineup, batting right behind Teixeira.

The Yankee first baseman has always been a slow starter, so there is no guarantee that he will hit more homers with a full season of A-Rod hitting behind him. Teixeira also turns 30 in April.

Miguel Cabrera has hit at least 33 homers in five of his six full seasons, but never more than 37. But Cabrera has batted over .320 four times in the last five years.

In the final weekend of the 2009 season, Cabrera was arrested on a domestic-abuse complaint. Police said he has an 0.26 blood-alcohol reading. During the offseason, Cabrera spent three months in an outpatient treatment program for alcoholism.

If you play in a league that uses OBP instead of BA, move Ryan Howard to the top of this tier. Howard’s 162-game average for his CAREER is 49 homers and 142 RBI. But his .279 BA in 2009 was the first time in three seasons he has topped .270. In 2008, Howard only hit .251. Howard has also struck out at least 180 times each of the last four years.

Cabrera’s off-field issues and Howard’s strikeouts and lower BA make Fielder and Teixeira slightly safer choices. Hitting at Yankee Stadium in the Yankee lineup makes Teixeira the safest choice of all. But all four of these players finished in the top four of 2009 MVP voting in their league, and all four could do so again.

TIER 3

Adrian Gonzalez hit 40 homers last year, a mark no one else in this tier has approached. Gonzalez’ homers the last four years have consistently trended upward: 24, 30, 36, 40. In 2006, Gonzalez’ BB/K was 52/133; last year it was 119-109.

Gonzalez’ BA has trended downward over the last four years: .304, .282, .279, .277. And while he did reach 119 RBI in 2008, his 100 RBI in 2007 and 99 last year are more likely numbers, given his home park and weak lineup.

In 2009, Gonzalez went 28-63-.306 on the road, compared with 12-36-.244 at home. He had similar splits the previous two years.  At the beginning of February of this year, Gonzalez’ agent predicted that he would be traded. The Padres issued a quick denial, pointing out that Gonzalez was under contract for two more years. But if a trade appears more likely as your draft approaches, be sure to bump Gonzalez up.

Joey Votto had the fourth-best OPS in baseball last year, behind Pujols, Joe Mauer and Fielder. After going 24-84-.297 in 2008, his first full year, Votto raised his average 25 points and matched the HR-RBI in 57 fewer AB. Votto missed time due to stress and anxiety-related issues related to his father’s death as well as an inner-ear infection. With Votto looking to be at full strength in 2010, he can continue his rise to stardom.

Did Justin Morneau peak in 2006, when he went 34-130-.321 and won the AL MVP? Since then, Morneau has hit under .275 two of the last three seasons and averaged 28 homers per year during that time. Last season, Morneau hit only .201 after the All-Star break before his season was cut short by a stress fracture in his back. In 2010, Morneau moves into a new ballpark, but his career numbers are slightly better on the road than at home. Morneau is still fairly young; he does not turn 29 until May.

Morneau has a proven track record of consistency and is therefore a safer choice than Votto, but the Reds’ first baseman appears to have more upside at this point.

Kendry Morales had a better 2009 than anyone else in this tier and does not turn 27 until June, but Morales has no track record - he showed little in three partial seasons prior to 2009. Morales was a highly-touted prospect out of Cuba and 2009 might well be the springboard to a great career. But Gonzalez and Morneau are already having great careers, while Votto has two good years and part of a third.

TIER 4

Power hitters do not come any more consistent than Adam Dunn. He hit exactly 40 homers each year from 2005-08, 46 in 2004 and 38 last year.

But here’s Dunn’s BA from 2006-9: .234, .264, .236, .267.

If Dunn were a good bet to hit mid-.260s, he’d be worth a higher pick for the homers. But if he hits in the mid .230s, he will sink your BA.

One way to hedge your bets is to use Dunn only against righties. Last season, Dunn had an OPS of .978 against righties and only .787 vs. lefties. His career split is .937/.828. Dunn’s career BA L/R split is .254/.239, which is not a huge split, but would help to limit the BA damage.

Dunn’s OF eligibility moves him out of Tier 5 into his own tier. Even if Dunn has one of his bad BA years, he  could still end up as one of your better OF starters.

TIER 5

Lance Berkman and Derrek Lee are both 34. Berkman’s homer totals from 2006-9: 45, 34, 29, 25. After hurting his wrist in 2006, Lee’s 2005 career year of 46-107-.335. became a distant memory, as he failed to top 22 homers in 2007 and 2008.

But in 2009, Berkman’s OPS was still .907, while Lee’s numbers rebounded to be as good as those of Morales. Maybe Lee has finally recovered from his wrist injury. And Berkman is only a year removed from his 2008 29-106-.312. Don’t reach too high for these big-name players, but if they fall in your draft, they could be steals.

TIER 6

Billy Butler went 13-55-.314 in the second half of 2009. This highly-touted prospect could pass the likes of Berkman and Lee as soon as this year, but with no track record, we need to see it first.

Carlos Pena tied for the AL lead in homers last year, and did so while missing the last month of the season after breaking two fingers. Pena’s homer totals for the last three seasons are 46, 31, 39.

But his BA over those seasons is: .282 .247 .227.Pena’s average is trending downward and he is coming off a hand injury. Having a .227 hitter in your lineup, especially at first base, is practically punting a category.

Dunn’s potential to hit in the .230s is bad enough, but he has just as good a chance of hitting in the .260s. And Dunn is almost a sure bet for 40 homers.

If Pena’s average does not rebound, he willl need to regain his 46-homer form to move back into the top 12.

KEEP IN MIND

If you drafted someone toward the bottom of this list and want to have an alternative on your roster, keep Michael Cuddyer and Garrett Jones in mind. It’s possible that both had career years last season, but what they lack in track record they make up in position flexibility - both are eligible at OF and 1B.

After a promising debut in 2008, Chris Davis ended up back in the minors part of last season. When he returned, he hit 21 homers in 391 AB, but also fanned 150 times. Worth a gamble for your bench.

Todd Helton no longer has enough power to be a starting fantasy 1B, but if you can platoon him, he did have a .986 OPS against righties last season.

At 34, Paul Konerko is past his prime, but he still managed 28-88-.277 last season.

Photo by shgmom56.

Fantasy Baseball:

There are plenty of things for a fantasy owner to consider when evaluating the top free agents. A player with extra motivation in his walk year will now be at the start of a long-term guaranteed contract. Most free agents are older than 27, which many consider to be the peak age for baseball players. Some free agents are well past that age.

Free agents that switch teams have additional considerations. They may be moving from a hitters’ park to a pitchers’ park or vice versa. Hitters may find themselves in a weaker lineup. Pitchers may have to contend with less support or weaker defense, or both. Players switching leagues have a whole new set of hitters or pitchers to learn.

In 2009, 12 of the top 15 top free agents who switched teams could be classified as fantasy successes. Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia, Bobby Abreu, Raul Ibanez, Adam Dunn, Randy Wolf, Trevor Hoffman, Brian Fuentes, and Orlando Hudson all performed well, with Ibanez (pictured) and Wolf actually exceeding expectations. While most of Fuentes’ numbers were down, his most important stat, saves, rose from 30 to an MLB-high 48. Hudson was benched toward the end of the season, but his overall numbers were fine, especially for a player who may not have even been drafted in many leagues.

Three other free agents who switched teams were somewhat disappointing to fantasy owners, but only if you drafted them based on 2008 career-year totals.

Kerry Wood’s numbers were down across the board and his save total fell from 34 in 2008 to 20 in 2009. But 20 saves was still enough to keep him in fantasy lineups. Wood’s 2009 might have been disappointing, but it was not a bust.

Going into 2009, Francisco Rodriguez had four consecutive seasons of at least 40 saves, including a record 62 in 2008. So by his standards, 35 saves were disappointing. And Rodriguez’ ERA rose from 2.24 in 2008 to 3.71 in 2009. But 35 is still a very respectable total for a closer. Also, Rodriguez’s strikeouts and WHIP were not much different from his 2008 totals.

A.J. Burnett did not match his 2008 career year totals of 18 wins and 231 strikeouts, but he did have a respectable 13 wins and 195 strikeouts. His ERA stayed about the same and his WHIP rose from 1.34 to 1.40. Best of all, he stayed healthy all season.

The three remaining free agents in the top 15 that switched teams last season turned out to be busts for fantasy owners:

After hitting between 29 and 33 homers the last four seasons for Philadelphia, Pat Burrell only had 14 roundtrippers for Tampa Bay. Burrell hit between .250 and .258 his last three seasons in Philly, but only .221 for Tampa Bay.

Milton Bradley had a career year in 2008 with Texas, but his home/road splits were a warning sign - 1.145 OPS at home and .872 on the road. In 2009, Bradley’s overall OPS sank to .775 and he once again found himself embroiled in controversy.

Derek Lowe won 15 games, one more than in 2008, but his ERA soared from 3.24 to 4.67 and his WHIP exploded from 1.13 to 1.52. Already not much of a strikeout pitcher, Lowe’s Ks fell from 147 to 111.

***

But it was a different story for the four top free agents who re-signed with their 2008 team. All  were disappointments to their fantasy owners and at least two were busts:

Ryan Dempster is the A.J. Burnett of this group: Dempster did not match his career 2008 (17 wins, 2.96 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 187 K) but as long as you did not draft him expecting those numbers, he had a respectable 2009 (11 wins, 3.64 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 172 K).

Manny Ramirez had a respectable year, especially when prorated to playing only 104 games due to his suspension for PEDs (19 homers, 63 RBI, .290 BA, .949 OPS). But for where he was likely drafted, he was at least a big disappointment.

Rafael Furcal had similar numbers to 2007, his last full season (he was injured most of 2008), with one big exception. He only had 12 stolen bases, continuing a downward trend (2005 - 46 SB; 2006 - 37; 2007 - 25).  Without his former steal totals, Furcal was no longer worthy of starting in most leagues. But he was drafted as a starting shortstop, as high as top eight in many leagues, so Furcal ended up as a fantasy bust.

Oliver Perez was not even fantasy ownable in 2009 (6.84 ERA, 1.92 WHIP). At least he was not a high fantasy draft pick and might not have even been drafted in many leagues.

***

It could be just a coincidence that the four free agents who re-signed with their teams all had disappointing years while most of the players who switched teams did well. But it could also be that players who test the market, only to return to their teams, discover that the market for them is not what they had hoped - a potential warning sign to fantasy owners for next season.

Follow FasterSport on Twitter.

Photo by Aaron Doster.

Fantasy Baseball:

But pitchers are much more unpredictable than hitters, and Greinke does not have much of a track record. What sort of risk would be involved in making Greinke one of your top fantasy baseball draft picks next year?

I decided to see how recent top Cy Young finishers aged 26 or under did the following season. From 2000 to 2008, there were 14 pitchers aged 26 or younger who finished in the top three in the Cy Young voting.

In 2009, four pitchers - Greinke, NL Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum (25 years old), AL runnerup Felix Hernandez (23) and third-place finisher Justin Verlander (26) fit into this category.

Of  the 14 earlier pitchers, only eight of them finished with similar statistics the following year. Almost half of these pitchers turned out not to justify a high fantasy pick.

The record was even worse for Cy Young winners. Only three of the six under 27 were able to repeat their success the following year:

Recent Cy Young winners who did not justify a high fantasy draft pick the following year:

Barry Zito, A’s - 2002 AL Cy Young winner at age 24

2002: W-L 23-5;  ERA 2.75; WHIP 1.134; K 182; IP 229.1

2003: W-L 14-12; ERA 3.30; WHIP 1.183; K 143; IP 231.2

Roy Halladay, Blue Jays - 2003 AL Cy Young winner at age 26

2003: W-L 22-7; ERA 3.25; WHIP 1.071; K 204; IP 266.0

2004: W-L 8-8; ERA 4.20; WHIP 1.346; K 95; IP 133.0

Jake Peavy, Padres - 2007 NL Cy Young winner at age 26

2007: W-L 19-6; ERA 2.54; WHIP 1.061; K 240; IP 223.1

2008: W-L 10-11; ERA 2.85; WHIP 1.180; K 166; IP 173.2

Halladay ended up on the DL twice in 2004 with shoulder problems. Peavy was on the DL in 2008 with elbow problems.

Zito and Peavy both put up pretty good stats overall, just not stats you would want from a fantasy draft choice in the first two rounds.

Recent Cy Young winners who justified a high fantasy draft pick the following year:

Johan Santana,Twins - 2004 AL Cy Young winner at age 25

2004: W-L 20-6; ERA 2.61; WHIP 0.921; K; IP 228.0

2005: W-L 16-7; ERA 2.87; WHIP 0.971; K; IP 231.2

CC Sabathia, Indians - 2007 AL Cy Young winner at age 26

2007: W-L 19-7; ERA 3.21; WHIP 1.141; K 209; IP 241.0

2008: W-L 17-10; ERA 2.70; WHIP 1.115; K 251; IP 253.0

Tim Lincecum, Giants - 2008 NL Cy Young winner at age 24

2008: W-L 18-5; ERA 2.62; WHIP 1.172; K 265; IP 227

2009: W-L 15-7; ERA 2.48; WHIP 1.047; K 261; IP 225.1

This group did not have the track record of the previous group. Santana was in his first full season as a starter in 2004 and Lincecum was in his first full season in 2008. Zito went 17-8 with a 3.49 ERA in 2001, the year before he won the Cy Young. Halladay went 19-7 in 2002, the year before his award.

But this group did stay healthy the following year. Some analysts have theorized that increasing a young pitcher’s workload significantly can increase the risk of injury. Santana’s innings pitched went from 158.1 in 2003 to 228 IP in 2004. Lincecum’s IP rose from 143.1 in 2007 to 227 in 2008. Both pitchers, however, were unaffected the year following the big increase.

Other pitchers who finished in the top 3 in Cy Young voting who justified a high fantasy draft pick the following year:

Tim Hudson, A’s - 2000 AL Cy Young runnerup at age 25

2000: W-L 20-6; ERA 4.14; WHIP 1.241; K 169; IP 202.1

2001: W-L 18-9; ERA 3.37; WHIP 1.221; K 181; IP 235.0

Mark Mulder, A’s - 2001 AL Cy Young runnerup at age 23

2001: W-L 21-8; ERA 3.45; WHIP 1.156; K 153; IP 229.1

2002: W-L 19-7; ERA 3.47; WHIP 1.143 ; K 159; IP 207.1

Matt Morris, Cardinals - 2001 NL Cy Young 3^rd place at age 26

2001: W-L 22-8; ERA 3.16; WHIP 1.257; K 185; IP 216.1

2002: W-L 17-9; ERA 3.42; WHIP 1.303; K 171; IP 210.1

Roy Oswalt, Astros - 2004 NL Cy Young 3^rd place at age 26

2004: W-L 20-10; ERA 3.49; WHIP 1.245; K 206; IP 237.0

2005: W-L 20-12; ERA 2.94; WHIP 1.204; K 184; IP 241.2

Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees - 2006 AL Cy Young runnerup at age 26

2006: W-L 19-6; ERA 3.63; WHIP 1.307; K 76; IP 218.0

2007: W-L 19-7; ERA 3.70; WHIP 1.294; K 104; IP 199.1

Other pitchers who finished in the top 3 in Cy Young voting who did not justify a high draft pick the following year:

Freddy Garcia, Mariners - 2001 AL Cy Young 3^rd place at age 26

2001: W-L 18-6; ERA 3.05; WHIP 1.123; K 163; IP 238.2

2002: W-L 16.10; ERA 4.39; WHIP 1.297; K 181; IP 223.2

Mark Prior, Cubs - 2003 NL Cy Young 3^rd place  at age 22

2003: W-L 18-6; ERA 2.43; WHIP 1.103; K 245; IP 211.1

2004: W-L 6-4; ERA 4.02; WHIP1.348; K 139; IP 118.2

Dontrelle Willis, Marlins - 2005 NL Cy Young runnerup at age 23

2005: W-L 22-10; ERA 2.63; WHIP 1.134; K 170; IP 236.1

2006: W-L 12-12; ERA 3.87; WHIP 1.419; K 160; IP 223.1

Of the 14 pitchers on the overall list, six of them pitched many more innings for the first time when they had their breakout year. But five of the six were unaffected the following year. Along with Santana and Lincecum, the other three were Hudson, Mulder and Wang.  The pitcher who got hurt the year after his big IP jump was Prior, who went from 116.2 in 2002 to 211.1 IP in 2003.

Three other pitchers on the list saw a big jump in IP from the previous year, but they did have an earlier season with a big workload. Morris went from 53 IP in 2000 to 216.1 in 2001, but he had 217 IP back in 1997. Morris and Oswalt were unaffected the following year, but Garcia was.

Willis had 197 IP in 2004, which is a full year by many standards, but he did jump to 236.1 in 2005. Willis did not maintain his performance in 2006 (or since then).

* * *

While Greinke, Lincecum, Hernandez and Verlander all had seasons that will put them high on fantasy draft boards in 2010, recent history suggests that one or two of them will not live up to expectations next season.

But hitters are not without risk, either. In 2009, plenty of hitters did not justify their high draft pick: Jose Reyes, David Wright, Grady Sizemore, Josh Hamilton, Lance Berkman, Carlos Beltran, Alfonso Soriano and B.J. Upton. Based on last year, drafting a pitcher in the first couple of rounds may not be much riskier than drafting a hitter.

As great as Greinke’s 2009 was, however, another trend suggests that the top pitcher next season should be his NL counterpart Lincecum. The last two pitchers to win consecutive NL Cy Youngs - Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux - both won the following year as well on the way to four consecutive Cy Young Awards.

Follow FasterSport on Twitter.

Photo by Keith Allison.