Fantasy Baseball: After a sensational season capped off by a runaway victory in the American League Cy Young race, Kansas City’s Zack Greinke will be one of the top-ranked pitchers in 2010. At 25, Greinke appears to be a young and healthy pitcher in the early stages of a great career. His ERA of 2.16 was the lowest AL mark since Pedro Martinez’ 1.74 in 2000.
But pitchers are much more unpredictable than hitters, and Greinke does not have much of a track record. What sort of risk would be involved in making Greinke one of your top fantasy baseball draft picks next year?
I decided to see how recent top Cy Young finishers aged 26 or under did the following season. From 2000 to 2008, there were 14 pitchers aged 26 or younger who finished in the top three in the Cy Young voting.
In 2009, four pitchers - Greinke, NL Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum (25 years old), AL runnerup Felix Hernandez (23) and third-place finisher Justin Verlander (26) fit into this category.
Of the 14 earlier pitchers, only eight of them finished with similar statistics the following year. Almost half of these pitchers turned out not to justify a high fantasy pick.
The record was even worse for Cy Young winners. Only three of the six under 27 were able to repeat their success the following year:
Recent Cy Young winners who did not justify a high fantasy draft pick the following year:
Barry Zito, A’s - 2002 AL Cy Young winner at age 24
2002: W-L 23-5; ERA 2.75; WHIP 1.134; K 182; IP 229.1
2003: W-L 14-12; ERA 3.30; WHIP 1.183; K 143; IP 231.2
Roy Halladay, Blue Jays - 2003 AL Cy Young winner at age 26
2003: W-L 22-7; ERA 3.25; WHIP 1.071; K 204; IP 266.0
2004: W-L 8-8; ERA 4.20; WHIP 1.346; K 95; IP 133.0
Jake Peavy, Padres - 2007 NL Cy Young winner at age 26
2007: W-L 19-6; ERA 2.54; WHIP 1.061; K 240; IP 223.1
2008: W-L 10-11; ERA 2.85; WHIP 1.180; K 166; IP 173.2
Halladay ended up on the DL twice in 2004 with shoulder problems. Peavy was on the DL in 2008 with elbow problems.
Zito and Peavy both put up pretty good stats overall, just not stats you would want from a fantasy draft choice in the first two rounds.
Recent Cy Young winners who justified a high fantasy draft pick the following year:
Johan Santana,Twins - 2004 AL Cy Young winner at age 25
2004: W-L 20-6; ERA 2.61; WHIP 0.921; K; IP 228.0
2005: W-L 16-7; ERA 2.87; WHIP 0.971; K; IP 231.2
CC Sabathia, Indians - 2007 AL Cy Young winner at age 26
2007: W-L 19-7; ERA 3.21; WHIP 1.141; K 209; IP 241.0
2008: W-L 17-10; ERA 2.70; WHIP 1.115; K 251; IP 253.0
Tim Lincecum, Giants - 2008 NL Cy Young winner at age 24
2008: W-L 18-5; ERA 2.62; WHIP 1.172; K 265; IP 227
2009: W-L 15-7; ERA 2.48; WHIP 1.047; K 261; IP 225.1
This group did not have the track record of the previous group. Santana was in his first full season as a starter in 2004 and Lincecum was in his first full season in 2008. Zito went 17-8 with a 3.49 ERA in 2001, the year before he won the Cy Young. Halladay went 19-7 in 2002, the year before his award.
But this group did stay healthy the following year. Some analysts have theorized that increasing a young pitcher’s workload significantly can increase the risk of injury. Santana’s innings pitched went from 158.1 in 2003 to 228 IP in 2004. Lincecum’s IP rose from 143.1 in 2007 to 227 in 2008. Both pitchers, however, were unaffected the year following the big increase.
Other pitchers who finished in the top 3 in Cy Young voting who justified a high fantasy draft pick the following year:
Tim Hudson, A’s - 2000 AL Cy Young runnerup at age 25
2000: W-L 20-6; ERA 4.14; WHIP 1.241; K 169; IP 202.1
2001: W-L 18-9; ERA 3.37; WHIP 1.221; K 181; IP 235.0
Mark Mulder, A’s - 2001 AL Cy Young runnerup at age 23
2001: W-L 21-8; ERA 3.45; WHIP 1.156; K 153; IP 229.1
2002: W-L 19-7; ERA 3.47; WHIP 1.143 ; K 159; IP 207.1
Matt Morris, Cardinals - 2001 NL Cy Young 3rd place at age 26
2001: W-L 22-8; ERA 3.16; WHIP 1.257; K 185; IP 216.1
2002: W-L 17-9; ERA 3.42; WHIP 1.303; K 171; IP 210.1
Roy Oswalt, Astros - 2004 NL Cy Young 3rd place at age 26
2004: W-L 20-10; ERA 3.49; WHIP 1.245; K 206; IP 237.0
2005: W-L 20-12; ERA 2.94; WHIP 1.204; K 184; IP 241.2
Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees - 2006 AL Cy Young runnerup at age 26
2006: W-L 19-6; ERA 3.63; WHIP 1.307; K 76; IP 218.0
2007: W-L 19-7; ERA 3.70; WHIP 1.294; K 104; IP 199.1
Other pitchers who finished in the top 3 in Cy Young voting who did not justify a high draft pick the following year:
Freddy Garcia, Mariners - 2001 AL Cy Young 3rd place at age 26
2001: W-L 18-6; ERA 3.05; WHIP 1.123; K 163; IP 238.2
2002: W-L 16.10; ERA 4.39; WHIP 1.297; K 181; IP 223.2
Mark Prior, Cubs - 2003 NL Cy Young 3rd place at age 22
2003: W-L 18-6; ERA 2.43; WHIP 1.103; K 245; IP 211.1
2004: W-L 6-4; ERA 4.02; WHIP1.348; K 139; IP 118.2
Dontrelle Willis, Marlins - 2005 NL Cy Young runnerup at age 23
2005: W-L 22-10; ERA 2.63; WHIP 1.134; K 170; IP 236.1
2006: W-L 12-12; ERA 3.87; WHIP 1.419; K 160; IP 223.1
Of the 14 pitchers on the overall list, six of them pitched many more innings for the first time when they had their breakout year. But five of the six were unaffected the following year. Along with Santana and Lincecum, the other three were Hudson, Mulder and Wang. The pitcher who got hurt the year after his big IP jump was Prior, who went from 116.2 in 2002 to 211.1 IP in 2003.
Three other pitchers on the list saw a big jump in IP from the previous year, but they did have an earlier season with a big workload. Morris went from 53 IP in 2000 to 216.1 in 2001, but he had 217 IP back in 1997. Morris and Oswalt were unaffected the following year, but Garcia was.
Willis had 197 IP in 2004, which is a full year by many standards, but he did jump to 236.1 in 2005. Willis did not maintain his performance in 2006 (or since then).
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While Greinke, Lincecum, Hernandez and Verlander all had seasons that will put them high on fantasy draft boards in 2010, recent history suggests that one or two of them will not live up to expectations next season.
But hitters are not without risk, either. In 2009, plenty of hitters did not justify their high draft pick: Jose Reyes, David Wright, Grady Sizemore, Josh Hamilton, Lance Berkman, Carlos Beltran, Alfonso Soriano and B.J. Upton. Based on last year, drafting a pitcher in the first couple of rounds may not be much riskier than drafting a hitter.
As great as Greinke’s 2009 was, however, another trend suggests that the top pitcher next season should be his NL counterpart Lincecum. The last two pitchers to win consecutive NL Cy Youngs - Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux - both won the following year as well on the way to four consecutive Cy Young Awards.
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Photo by Keith Allison.
