With the New York Yankees’ 2009 win, the team with home field advantage has now won 12 of the last 14 World Series that have gone at least six games, dating back to 1982.
When a team came home for Game 6 with a 3-2 lead, they have won the World Series all five times during that span:
Home team won after leading 3 games to 2
2009 - Yankees over Phillies in 6
1997 - Marlins over Indians in 7
1996 - Yankees over Braves in 6
1995 - Braves over Indians in 6
1993 - Blue Jays over Braves in 6
Four of the five winners wrapped things up in Game 6, while the 1997 Marlins lost Game 6 but won Game 7.
When a team came home for Game 6 trailing 3 games to 2, they won the World Series 7 of 9 times during this period:
Home team won both Games 6 and 7 after trailing 3 games to 2
2002 - Angels over Giants in 7
2001 - Diamondbacks over Yankees in 7
1991 - Twins over Braves in 7
1987 - Twins over Cardinals in 7
1986 - Mets over Red Sox in 7
1985 - Royals over Cardinals in 7
1982 - Cardinals over Brewers in 7
In both instances where the home team came home for Game 6 and lost the World Series, they were eliminated in Game 6:
2003 - Marlins over Yankees in 6
1992 - Blue Jays over Braves in 6
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The trend of the last 28 years reverses the trend of the previous 27. From 1955-1981, 15 out of 20 teams coming home for a Game 6 ending up losing the World Series.
When the team coming home had a 3 game to 2 lead, they ended up winning only four out of seven times:
Home team won after leading 3 games to 2
1980 - Phillies over Royals in 6
1977 - Yankees over Dodgers in 6
1964 - Cardinals over Yankees in 7
1960 - Pirates over Yankees in 7
Home team lost both Games 6 and 7 after leading 3 games to 2
1979 - Pirates over Orioles in 7
1968 - Tigers over Cardinals in 7
1958 - Yankees over Braves in 7
The 1979 Pirates, 1968 Tigers and 1958 Yankees all won Game 5 as well. Only two other teams in World Series history - the 1925 Pirates and the 1985 Royals - have rallied from a 3-1 deficit in a best-of-seven World Series.
But while 7 of the last 9 teams returning home down 3 games to 2 rallied to win the World Series, 13 of the previous 14 teams in that situation went on to lose:
Home team lost after trailing 3 games to 2
1981 - Dodgers over Yankees in 6
1978 - Yankees over Dodgers in 6
1975 Reds over Red Sox in 7
1972 - Athletics over Reds in 7
1971 - Pirates over Orioles in 7
1967 Cardinals over Red Sox in 7
1965 - Dodgers over Twins in 7
1962 - Yankees over Giants in 7
1959 - Dodgers over White Sox in 6
1957 - Braves over Yankees in 7
1956 - Yankees over Dodgers in 7
1955 - Dodgers over Yankees in 7
Only one home team between 1955 and 1981 that trailed, 3 games to 2, rallied to win both Games 6 and 7 at home to take the World Series:
1973 Athletics over Mets in 7
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Matt says:
OK, considering the small sample size and lack of any useful predicting indicators, what's your point?