Recent reports have indicated that several of you are hard at work on automating the “sentiment” found on blogs and social networks.  While you may be attracted to the sheer novelty of creating an algorithm based on what bloggers and tweeters think, you may want to hold off on the actual trading.

I am a fairly well-known denizen of the financial blogosphere so take my word for it - coming up with trading formulas based on the following oft-heard sentiments may not be worth the expended brain power.

Some Typical Finance-Related Social Media Sentiments:

I’m at Ulysses Bar with @DBagMediaGuy

RT @SpeedieTrader Long $FAZ and also Short $FAZ

Since everyone thinks this, I just blogged about how it’s really that.

Here Are The Reasons Why Brazil Is About To Implode

8 Reasons Why Brazil Will Be The Hottest Market This Year

5-minute candles on $ES_F January 110 puts http://chart.ly76387

CNBC sucks so much because (fill in the blank)

“Buy Programs”

Here is my latest 23,000-word Gretchen Morgenstern takedown http://bt.ly64578

I just unlocked the Janitor badge for the W Hotel Union Square!  #foursquare

Goldman Sachs stole my bike

@SpeedieTrader OK, now I’m Short $FAS Puts and Long $FAZ Calls.  I think.

Timmy Boy is showing some real spunk today at Capitol Hill hearing part 146

blah blah Tiger Woods blah blah

Lithuania CDS spreads blown out to a 6 week record high, look out below.

Listening to Carry On My Wayward Son by Kansas on #Grooveshark

@SpeedieTrader took small losses $FAZ, $FAS, Quality of Life, etc.

Anyway, you get the idea.  Put that crap in your tradebot and see what it spits out at ya.

            Here’s some information to get you started.

             Is old school for you?

             When does sticking with tradition make sense? It’s highly personal, that decision is best made by you. “Traditional banking benefits from online banking and vice versa,” explains Nick Miceli, market president for TD Bank.

            That said though, he points out some positives of traditional banking. For starters, there is access to a friendly staff that can answer your questions in real time and communicate in a way where you feel comfortable. When making a big purchase, such as a home or car, you can speak directly with an expert for tips and next steps. Staff can walk you through the process of an application and answer any questions. Some banks offer free coin counting machines. Of much importance too, he adds, “Local lenders make local decisions. Your loan is processed by a person who you have a relationship with and it’s about more than just the numbers.”

            Another plus, says Miceli, is the store staff can find creative banking solutions that you might not have considered. “The branch is a gateway to other services, such as wealth management, private and commercial banking,” he adds.

            Then too, says Paula Milsted, director of marketing for Chesapeake Bank, a community bank, and its national online banking arm, Clear Sky Accounts, “An in-person business banker can end up being your partner through many of the complex financial decisions that arise throughout the life of a business. And home loans, usually go a lot smoother when you have a mortgage banker living where you are, as opposed to the other side of the country. Once you establish a relationship with a traditional bank, especially a community bank, they appreciate your business and tend to go above and beyond for the loyal and long-term customers,” she adds.

            However, says Richard Barrington, personal finance expert for MoneyRates.com, while traditional banks have the potential to offer more personal service, They don’t always deliver on that potential.” He says cost-cutting and high staff turnover have made it harder to find that personal touch in recent years. Also, the higher cost structure of traditional banks may well get passed along to you as a banking customer, he adds.

            The hours are another challenge. “While many branches have significantly increased the days and hours that they are open, it sometimes is still hard to physically get to the bank during our busy days,” says Mary Harris, associate professor of business administration at Cabrini College.

             Is it time to break tradition?

            There are two main advantages of an online bank. “One is low cost. Because they don’t have to pay for the space, maintenance, and staff of having branches, online banks generally should have lower overhead than a traditional bank. As a customer, this may show up in the form of low-cost checking accounts, and/or higher interest rates on savings accounts and CDs,” says Barrington.

            The other plus is technology. “If you are looking for the latest capabilities in electronic banking, you are most likely to find them from a bank that specializes in that kind of banking.

            Simply put, “Online banking gives you the ability to create a clear visualization of your money,” says Michael Ley, vice president, eBusiness and Payments at PNC.

            Miceli points out a few other considerations: the ability to access information while traveling or from home; 24 hour service; up-to-date account information, including balances of all deposit accounts, all loan types and lines of credits, and credit cards; transfer funds, arrange for immediate or future transfers; send payments to businesses and individuals; review payment history by payee, date or amount, including the ability to see check images of bills paid via paper check, for example.

            Online banking empowers users to take charge of their own fiscal responsibility and literacy, adds Joe Polverari, senior vice president of strategy and development for Yodlee.

            Then too, “The beauty of online banking is the expectation of a one-stop service center that can handle multiple transactions. Explore a potential online bank’s ability to handle various accounts and streamline account activity,” says Di Morais, an executive with Deposits and Product Innovation at Ally Bank.

            However, cautions Barrington, “If you like personal service, then forget about an online bank. Also, it’s important to determine what ATM networks an online bank belongs to, because if you have to rely on other banks’ ATMs to access your cash, you could find yourself regularly paying extra fees.”  Although some will reimburse you up to a certain amount when you use another bank’s ATM. Inquire about the policy.

            Online banking clearly scores a win on the convenience front, but only if the website is easy to navigate, says Morais. “Compare the sites of potential online banks, and visit the ‘help’ areas of each. Your e-bank should offer simplicity and ease of use, even if you’re not a computer expert. Some sites offer live chat features with customer service representative available to help immediately guide you through your banking transaction,” she adds.

           Privacy, security, identity theft are concerns for some. The FDIC has security standards that all banks must adhere to and offers guidelines on what to look for when browsing the security standards of potential online banks. For instance, make sure your bank provides encryption on al emailed information before hitting “send.” Additional recommendations can be found at http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/online/safe.html. 

            So how do you decide what’s best for you?  For many, it may come down to your financial expertise, familiarity with online systems, and time constraints, points out Harris.

            No matter whether you stay traditional or go for I-banking, make sure the institution is FDIC insured. That seal means that deposits are protected for up to at least $250,000 by the U.S. government.

          Then look at how you use your bank. If you do all your banking electronically and have no need for a personal contact at the bank, online is probably okay by you, says Barrington. If you would miss walking into the bank, then you likely want to stick with tradition. Whichever you decide, says Barrington, “You still need to look at the cold, hard facts - how does the bank compare with its peers when it comes to cost or in the rates they offer?”

Our cities can make these jobs by remaking their places. Every St. Patrick’s Day, I think of my grandmother, who was not at all Irish and almost never wore green. I make the association because my sister and I escorted her out of Manhattan on March 17, 1989 to a family reunion in Connecticut. My sister, ever the cautious one, convinced a pal of hers to print buttons for us to wear on the commuter train that read: “I Condone No Vomiting on my Grandmother.” And none happened.

Look, we know that St. Patrick’s Day at its core is a valuable celebration of ethnic honor. We also know that, as an economic event, it’s a tired routine of selling booze and cynical ads. The point is that urban rituals of forced shitfacedery are opportunities to think up new paths to a new economy.

To see what I mean, just think of a “big-city parade” cottage industry. A  graphic-design professional could make a fair trade with buttons like the ones my sister got. And more broadly, landscapers and retailers and event producers could rework urban space into parks, plazas, paintball fields and whatever else the city can afford. They’d hire people to do unskilled tasks like pruning and cleaning, and high-training tasks like event programming, security and insurance. And they’d make a new deal for New York and Boston and every other city that too often experiences public life as a barrage of corporate posters and puke.

My grandmother, who grew up in a coldwater flat on the Lower East Side, would raise a glass of Fresca to the prospect.

Apparently ‘The Internet’ itself is up for the recently devalued and rendered meaningless Nobel Peace Prize this year.  This is akin to TIME’s Man of the Year going to ‘You’ recently, complete with a mirror on the magazine’s cover.  Gross.

They will argue that the internet has the power to “start a dialogue” or “give equal voice to the oppressed and censored” and they are a little bit right, but so why not just give it to Twitter and its founders?  Twitter was ground zero for the citizens’ fund raising activities for Haiti and it was also where the world heard about and discussed the Iranian fight for election freedom last year.  The internet itself is only very partially meaningful to the cause of peace, but the majority of it is just useful for the viewing of pornography and the banner ad marketing of As Seen On TV products.

Anyway, we’ll conclude with this silliness…

If Wired Magazine’s (the nominator) campaign proves successful and ‘The Internet’ wins, who among us gets to accept the award?  Below, some suggestions…

Choices to accept the Nobel Prize on behalf of ‘The Internet’:

a.  Al Gore

b.  The Chocolate Rain kid

c.  Paris Hilton

d.  Star Wars Kid

e.  Larry & Sergey

This is all foolish speculation, as we know damn well that should ‘The Internet’ be named the winner, Arianna Huffington must be chosen to accept the award according to Web Law, lest we find ourselves disconnected.

]]> http://thefastertimes.com/business/2010/03/17/if-the-internet-wins-the-nobel-peace-price-does-the-chocolate-rain-kid-accept-the-award/feed/ http://thefastertimes.com/business/2010/03/16/can-alacras-pulsepro-predict-stock-price-movements/ http://thefastertimes.com/business/2010/03/16/can-alacras-pulsepro-predict-stock-price-movements/#comments Wed, 17 Mar 2010 03:43:21 +0000 Fred Wilson http://thefastertimes.com/business/2010/03/16/can-alacras-pulsepro-predict-stock-price-movements/ Yesterday’s WSJ had an interesting piece about Alacra’s new Pulse Pro offering. For those that don’t know, I invested in Alacra in 1999 via Flatiron Partners and have been on its board ever since.

Alacra has been developing and selling information services to the banking, brokerage, accounting, and consulting businesses for almost 15 years. They use the web, sophisticated data aggregation, filtering, and packaging approaches to deliver powerful information products to the most demanding knowledge professionals in the world.

And so their take on social media is worth looking at. Their Pulse product starts with media available on the open web, from blogs to news articles, and then applies a set of filters to produce useful insights. As they explained to the WSJ:

Alacra’s PulsePro tries to tackle the issue in several ways. First, it only looks at blogs the company deems credible. The blogs are combined with articles from traditional media companies for a total of about 3,000 sources. Rather than trying to codify all the text within each source, it focuses on specific items such as quotes from well-reputed Street analysts and C-level executives. Sentiment ratings are assigned based on the language used.

What’s interesting is this data set apparently is producing enough signal that wall street traders are using it to predict stock price movements. More from the WSJ:

Through backtesting, Alacra has found the ratings generated by its product can lead movements in stock prices by about one to three weeks for large-capitalization stocks. In turn, hedge funds and proprietary traders are interested in the feed despite that it won’t work anywhere near the lightning-fast speeds they’ve been achieving for much of their other computer-based trading.

Alacra Pulse is available as a feed for those who want to run it through proprietary algorithms. It’s also available as web service for us mortals. And its available as a free 30 day trial for everyone. So check it out and see if you can use it to find signal from what we all know is a noisy world out there.

Buried in a story about how what’s left of Lehman Brothers is looking to emerge from Chapter 11, there was an astounding statistic that I’ll ask you to savor like the last suckle of a Werther’s Original…

From Reuters:

Lehman has paid $641.9 million in U.S. professional fees since it filed for bankruptcy, according to a January 2010 report.

Hilarious.  Lehman Brothers was the biggest bankruptcy filing in history - so why shouldn’t the “clean up effort” be the biggest legal and advisory bonanza in history as well?

Everyone got involved - restructuring firms, bankruptcy trustees, law firms of every stripe, sushi chefs, PR firms, jugglers and stilt-walkers and fire eaters, consultants, advisors, tax experts, witch doctors, real estate appraisers, hairdressers, financial engineers, secretaries, bassoonists etc.

What a Norman Rockwell moment for America - just picture this hideous tableaux - bespoke-suited and bespectacled millionaires sifting through the carrion offal of disgraced-but-still-filthy-rich billionaires while the rest of American Business looks on without a line of credit or a paying customer in sight.

Just like Walt Disney imagineered it for Main Street USA.

$641 million in fees generated during Chapter 11?  Hell, that’s a stimulus plan in and of itself!  Who can we bring to its knees next quarter?  Can we incinerate another hundred billion dollar company so that the bourgeoisie can snort those ashes off a conference table, too?

Someone’s gotta do it, so I’m not mad at the restructo-vulture complex.  In fact, to the contrary, I’m glad to see that we haven’t found a way to offshore the jobs of corporate undertakers just yet.

Still got one booming industry left, then.  Cool.

So here’s my candidate: round up all the snide big-city bloggers and put them to work at entry-level tasks in low-income neighborhoods. These bloggers, who talk about how they miss the “dangerous” big city that thrived before elite people like themselves came along, are obviously so clever they would have no trouble turning the chronic problems of poverty into amusing but tart businesses.

One New York blogger, which I won’t name or link to because I don’t want to publicize it, reveals how any city habitue with enough credit can exist in an iPod-Starbucks-sublet haze that fails to distinguish one city from another. This fellow mordantly charted the rise in incomes in the East Village of Manhattan- a place with a big share of public housing, seniors, children on a school lunch program- and claimed to compare it with Brownsville, a low-income section of Brooklyn. Brownsville, the blogger declared, would soon follow a predictable pattern of rising rents, proliferating Thai restaurants and tiresome trust-fund bloggers.

The day an acquaintance of mine posted a link to this blog on Facebook, I heard from a friend that a man was shot in front of a barbershop in a New York City neighborhood not mentioned on the blog.  Children and old people routinely pass the spot of the murder. It’s unclear what caused the crime, but it’s clear that people who saw it have to worry about who saw them.

What does any of this have to do with the green economy? Think about what this blogger needs: not solar power, not turbines, not all the local kohlrabi he can eat. He needs to understand that cities prosper when everyone gets a chance to compete, to learn and to engage. And he needs to see what goes on a few miles away from his well-padded chair if he really wants to “save New York” from decay. Because as the climate changes and the global economy runs increasingly on ease of contact, cities that don’t invest deeply in hope and broadly in public safety will deteriorate in ways less suited to blogs than to epic poetry.

Next time you read about how a city is “dying” from gentrification, get up and go to a neighborhood you’ve never seen. You may see a business opportunity I haven’t even dreamed.

            The competition is fierce. There are plenty of adults looking for any type of work, be it full time, part time or temporary. So teens will need to be savvy to snag a chance to make some cash.

            Here’s how to get started.

            Think about what you want

          As a starting point, teenagers should ask themselves the following questions - what existing skills and strengths can I leverage to secure summer employment; what skills do I want to develop this summer; do I have hobbies that I can pursue as summer employment; what can I do this summer that is interesting and unique and will catch the eye of a college recruiter or employer, says Dawn Chandler, a professor of management at the Orfalea College of Business at California Polytechnic State University.

            Develop a resume

           Even if you haven’t completed high school, you can still put together a resume that will list your name, address, phone number and email address. “Make sure your email address does not sound silly or seductive. Add any skills you might have, any place you may have worked in the past, your GPA, if it is 3.0 or higher, and any special clubs or sports you belong to, which shows leadership qualities,” advises career coach Lori Gersh Weiner.

              Network

             You never know who might know of someone who is looking to fill a summer spot. Many times the apartment superintendent or the person who cuts your hair will know of a place to send you. Ask parents, friends, relatives, everyone. “This is a real case of the early bird gets the worm. Hitting the pavement and hitting it hard, before the summer rush, will pay off enormously,” says Gersh Weiner.

            Simply put, getting a job is not a solo process. Two-thirds of all job seekers will get a job from someone they already know, according to SimplyHired.com, a search engine for jobs. The good news is teens have extensive social networks on sites like Facebook and Twitter. SimplyHired can help you see the connections you have on LinkedIn so that you can touch base with them for an interview. SimplyHired.com also helps job seekers to get friends involved in the job search, allowing you to share jobs easily with your Facebook, LinkedIn or Twitter contacts.

            The jobs could be just about anywhere, the mall, hotel/motel help, parks and recreation departments, golf and tennis clubs, summer camps, fast food restaurants, mowing lawns, pool cleaning, or babysitting. Check on job boards like Monster.com, Craigslist, the local newspaper, the guidance counselor’s office at school, and more.

            While the job market is tough, some industries are booming and hiring big time. Look to health care and green industries, advises Jeff Cohen, author, The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Recession Proof Careers.

           Have an open mind about all opportunities. “Many fast-food restaurants accept applicants at 16. Do not think you are above these jobs, ones that can teach you about work ethic, how to be a team player and customer service,” says Heather Moose, a spokesperson for SnagAJob.com.

            Though there may be one job that you really want, apply for as many jobs as you can.

             Nail the interview

           Finally, when the big day of the interview arrives, be ready. It’s understood that a teenager is teenager, but that’s not license to show up like it’s time to party. Think no flesh, no flash, just class. “Dress like you’re going to a house of worship. Lose the tongue ring and while you’re at it, definitely take out any piercings or nose rings,” says Ellen Pober Rittberg, author, 35 Things Your Teen Won’t Tell You, So I Will.

            Also arrive with one or two forms of identification, social security number or card, and a list of references with contact numbers.

            Do show up having done a little homework. “Visit the store, if it’s a store and see what merchandise or service they sell or provide, and watch how employees greet and interact with customers. If it’s a company, find out what their philosophy or mission statement is, Google or Bing it on the computer to get more information. Try to get a copy of the annual report of the company,” says Pober Rittberg.

            As for what impresses an employer, Tim Arnold, president of 2Bhip.com, a specialty retail website, hires teens/students during the summer and holiday season, highlights what he looks for before and after hiring them. “I look for a kid that is serious. Most kids come in with a ‘I want to hangout and get paid attitude,’. It is important that the teen is mature and acts serious,” he says.

            Arnold doesn’t mind if mom or dad inquires as to whether he is hiring, “but I want the kid to come in for the job. I am not hiring the parent,” he adds.

            Once hired, he expects them to show up to work. “If they are not taking the job seriously, then I am getting rid of them and bringing in someone who wants to work. We hope they like the job and have fun, but our priority is getting the work done. I don’t have time to baby sit and don’t have patience for tardiness or someone who’s social life is more important than showing up.

            Alas, if can’t find a paying gig, volunteer. “While a summer job may enable a high school student to make a few thousand dollars, being a volunteer may yield the same indirectly,” says Barbar Pytel, private college consultant and author, Best College for You: How to Find the Right Fit and Save Big Money. Colleges are looking for leaders and private colleges look at the whole person. Consistent volunteer work and extracurricular activities throughout high school may yield great benefits in the way of scholars and grants that may run in the range of $2,500 up to $25,000. “So if you can’t get a job to earn money for college, don’t take the summer off, volunteer.”

         Check out sites like www.WaysToHelp.org, and ask around in your community.

            The bottom line: get busy now.

His methodology was admittedly primitive but the results are really interesting - it turns out that bloggers may be the perfect contrarian indicator (neither of us is surprised)…

From The Pragmatic Capitalist:

I ran the data over the course of the incredible March 2009 rally.  Not surprisingly, the results speak for themselves.  The sites I sampled (which will remain anonymous for obvious reasons) have been overwhelmingly bearish throughout the entirety of the rally with the exception of one period - January 2010 - just before the market experienced its largest downturn of the rally.

This is a really cool idea, I hope he continues to work on this indicator and eventually makes the sample blogs he used public.  Head over to TPC and see the chart itself…

Source:

CHART OF THE DAY: CAN BLOGS HELP YOU INVEST? (TPC)

It was exactly a year ago when Naveen and I flipped the switch on foursquare.  It was the day before we headed down to SXSW - back when we were still feeling 50/50 on whether people would think the “let’s turn real life into a game!” idea was really interesting or whether they’d laugh us out of Austin.

We took separate flights.  I remember walking down the tarmac into the plane still on my laptop fixing the database.  Naveen landed in Austin and texted me something along the lines of “its still alive!”.  We made it though the weekend with a bunch of hiccups but nothing disastrous (special thx to friends in NYC who were keeping an eye on the melting database).

One year later, Dennis and Naveen head back to SXSW with a company of 16 people supporting them and 500,000 users checking in almost 300,000 times daily. It’s been really fun to watch them turn an idea into a service into a breakout mobile phenomenon, all in one year. Well done guys. Happy birthday.